000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171520
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC TUE JUN 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Low pressure of 1008 MB is centered near 18.5N109W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 180 nm of
the southeast semicircle. There is currently a medium chance
that this low will develop into a tropical cyclone. The low will
be moving over cooler wasters and into a more unfavorable
environment by Saturday when tropical cyclogenesis will become
less likely. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is propagating across the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection was noted from 10N to 16N between 95W and 98W.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to low pres near 09N98W
to 09N103W. A second extension of the monsoon trough begins near
14N109W and continues to low pres near 09N126W to 07N131W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N131W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection was noted from 07N to 10N between
100W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection was noted 120 NM of
the monsoon trough between 120W and 130W.

...DISCUSSION...   

to the North of 15N and to the east of 120W:  

A surface ridge extends from high pressure through 24N120W to
21N115W. A surface trough extends across the Gulf of California.
Low pressure of 1008 MB is centered near 18.5N109W and discussed
in the special features section above. Fresh to locally strong
winds prevail over the northeast quadrant of the low. Outside
this area gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are reaching
near 8 feet over the northeast quadrant of the low where winds
area strongest. Outside this area seas are in the 4-7 foot
range. The ridge will build over the area and tighten the
pressure gradient over the northeast waters which will
strengthen wind flow and increase seas to 8 ft.  

to the South of 15N and to the east of 120W:

A tropical wave is moving through the far eastern waters and
discussed in the section above. Gentle to moderate monsoonal
flow prevails to the south of the monsoon trough. Gentle to
moderate northeasterly trade winds prevail to the north of the
monsoon trough. Southwesterly swell continues to propagate
across the area with seas in the 5 to 8 foot range from 100W
westward, and in the 4 to 6 foot range from 100W eastward.

Elsewhere to the west of 120W:

High pressure prevails in the northern waters. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and the monsoon
trough as well as lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting moderate to fresh winds with seas in the 4 to 7 foot
range. The ridge will prevail in the northern waters during the
next few of days with these general conditions persisting. 

$$
AL