000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141541
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC TUE JUN 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving westward across the eastern Pacific
Ocean just to the west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The wave
extends from 10N100W to 17N99W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is present from 06N to 17N between 99W and
102W.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough reaches from 10N88W to a 1012 mb low pressure
center near 11N97W. The monsoon trough continues from 15N103W
through 1010 mb low pressure near 13N104W to 10N113W. The ITCZ
continues from 10N113W to 12N120W to 06N134W to beyond 06N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection exists from 02N
to 10N between 77W and 95W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is found within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ
east of 123W. To the west of 123W, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is found along and up to 150 nm to
the south of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

From 15N northward and from 120W eastward:  

A surface ridge extends southeastward from 32N140W to 15N112W.
Light to moderate trade winds cover an area from 10N to 20N to
the west of 110W. This area of light to moderate trade winds
will continue through the end of this week. A weakening frontal
boundary over California has weakened the ridging to the north
of this area. This has caused the north winds just to the west
of the California coast to decrease. North swell moving
southward just to the west of northern Baja California will
increase slightly tonight through Thursday. Combined seas west
of Baja California will be around 6 feet today and increase to
around 8 feet on Thursday. Northwest winds around 15 knots north
of 25N will increase to around 20 knots Wednesday night and
Thursday. Winds will then decrease as another front approaches.
After the front passes on Friday, north winds along the
California coast will increase over the weekend and early next
week as the ridge rebuilds.

From 15N southward and from 120W eastward:

A tropical wave is moving through the far eastern waters. Light
to gentle southwest winds generally prevail south of the monsoon
trough, while gentle to moderate southeast trade winds are
encountered south of the ITCZ. Light to gentle northeast trade
winds are occurring to the north of the monsoon trough and the
ITCZ. These conditions are expected to continue through the end
of this week. Southwest long period swell originating in the
southern hemisphere continues to arrive. Combined seas in this
area will be peaking today between 8 and 10 feet. Seas will
subside to below 8 ft by Friday. Model guidance suggests more
long period southwest swell could spread into the area beginning
on Sunday.

Elsewhere to the west of 120W:

A high pressure ridge remains over the northern waters. The
difference in pressure between the high and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ will maintain moderate to fresh trade
winds from 07N to 25N. Winds and seas will be highest west of
130W. The ridge of high pressure has become slightly weaker and
will remain so until Saturday, which will allow trade wind waves
to subside.

$$
cam