000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140948
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC TUE JUN 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is propagating across the eastern Pacific Ocean
just to the west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The wave is along
18N99W 14N98W 11N97W. Convective precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 13N to 17N between 98W and 100W.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

Monsoon trough from 10N86W to a 1012 mb low pressure center that
is near 11N96W. The monsoon trough continues from a second 1012
mb low pressure center that is near 13N104W, to 09N110W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N110W to 11N119W to 07N125W to 05N135W to
05N140W. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 03N to
05N to the east of 79W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough to the east of
80w, within 90 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 83W
and 85W, within 60 nm on either side of the line from 04N85W to
04N88W to 06N94W to 08N98W, within 270 nm to the north of the
ITCZ between 113W and 125W, within 60 nm to the north of the
ITCZ between 131W and 133W, and within 90 nm to the south
of the ITCZ between 131W and 137W.

...DISCUSSION...   

Broad cyclonic wind flow, and comparatively drier air in
subsidence in water vapor satellite imagery, cover the Pacific
Ocean to the north of the line that passes through 32N140W to
25N132W 25N129W, beyond 27N114w. Upper level anticyclonic wind
flow covers the area that is from 05N northward between 100W and
140W.

to the North of 15N and to the east of 120W:  

A surface ridge passes through 32N137W to 26N128W to 17N114W.
Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Pacific Ocean from 13N
northward from 112W westward. A surface trough is in the
northernmost part of the Gulf of California. A surface trough
cuts right through the center of mainland Mexico. The surface
pressure gradient that exists between the ridge and the troughs
is supporting gentle to moderate winds, and seas in the range
from 5 feet to 7 feet. The ridge will continue to build during
the next few days, which will freshen winds off the Baja
California coast with seas building to 6 to 8 feet.

to the South of 15N and to the east of 120W:

A tropical wave is moving through the far eastern waters. Light
to gentle monsoonal flow prevails to the south of the monsoon
trough, while gentle to moderate southeasterly trade winds
prevail to the south of the ITCZ. Light to gentle northeasterly
trade winds prevail to the north of the monsoon trough and the
ITCZ. Southwesterly swell continues to propagate across the area
with seas in the 6 to 8 foot range from 100W westward, and in
the 4 to 6 foot range from 100W eastward.

Model guidance forecasts a surface low pressure center 14N106W
in 24 hours, and near 15N107W in 48 hours. Sea heights reaching
8 feet to 9 feet are forecast in 48 hours within 180 nm on
either side of the line from 10N106W to 16N102W to 19N104W.

Elsewhere to the west of 120W:

High pressure prevails in the northern waters. The surface
pressure gradient that exists between the high pressure that is
to the north, and the lower pressure that is in the vicinity of
the ITCZ, will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds to the
west of 130W, with sea heights in the 6 foot to 8 foot range.
The ridge will prevail in the northern waters during the next
few of days with these general conditions persisting. 

$$
mt