000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132049
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is propagating across the eastern Pacific south
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted from 07N to 16N between 92W and 100W. This
wave will be one to watch with interest over the next several
days with the potential for tropical development. 

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N100W to 09N110W.
The ITCZ extends from 09N110W to 12N118W to 05N130W to 05N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection was noted n of 03N east
of 86W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 60 NM of
the ITCZ w of 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N and east of 120W:  

High pressure ridge prevails over the northern waters west of
the Baja California peninsula. A trough prevails over mainland
Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge and trough is
supporting gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 7 ft
range. The ridge will continue to build over the next couple of
days which will freshen winds off the Baja California coast with
seas building to 6 to 8 feet.

South of 15N and east of 120W:

A tropical wave is moving through the far eastern waters. Please
refer to the section on tropical waves for more information
regarding this feature. Light to gentle monsoonal flow prevails
to the south of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate
southeasterly tradewinds prevails south of the ITCZ. light to
gentle northeasterly tradewinds prevail north of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ. Southwesterly swell continues to propagate
across the area with seas in the 6 to 8 foot range west of 100W
and 4 to 6 foot range east of 100W.

Elsewhere west of 120W:

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure
gradient between high pressure to the north and lower pressure
in the vicinity of the ITCZ will maintain moderate to fresh
trades west of 130W with seas in the 6 to 8 foot range. The
ridge will prevail over the northern waters over the next couple
of days with these general conditions persisting. 

$$
AL