000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131547
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is aligned along 97W from 08N to 17N just
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The wave is moving
westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is present from 11N to 16N between 92W and 101W.
Forecast guidance continues to vary from model run to model run
on the possibility of low pressure developing by early next week
to the south of Mexico between 95W and 105W. Model consensus
appears to be backing off on this scenario with the ECMWF
remaining the most aggressive model in developing the surface
low.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough passes from low pressure 1010 MB near 07N79W
to 10N84W to 09N91W to 10N98W to 09N110W. The ITCZ continues
from 09N117W to 04N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is found within 180 NM north of the ITCZ
between 136W and 140W. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is located from 03N to 09N between 77W and 81W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection exists from 04N to
08N between 81W and 89W.

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N and east of 120W:  

A mid to upper-level trough is moving eastward over Nevada and
southern California. A weakening cold front is approaching the
northwest California coast. A surface ridge extends
southeastward from 32N140W to 19N110W. The front approaching the
California coast has weakened the ridging to the north of this
area. This has caused the north winds just to the west of the
California coast to decrease. North swell moving southward just
to the west of northern Baja California will decrease in response
during the next couple of days. North winds along the California
coast will increase during the second half of the week as the
pressure gradient tightens once again along the California
coast. Low pressure inland just north of the Gulf of California
will be deepening as the ridge rebuilds.

South of 15N and east of 120W:

A tropical wave is moving through the far eastern waters. Please
refer to the section on tropical waves for more information
regarding this feature. Light to gentle monsoonal flow prevails
to the south of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate easterly
trade winds will prevail to the north of the monsoon trough.
Long period southwest swell that originated in the southern
hemisphere continue to arrive, but have begun to decay. Combined
seas in this area will subside to below 8 ft by Thursday as a
result.

Elsewhere west of 120W:

The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and low
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ will maintain moderate to
fresh trades west of 130W. Winds will become moderate and trade
wind waves will decrease Thursday and Friday as surface low
pressure approaching the northwest California coast weakens the
ridge. Winds and seas will begin to increase over the weekend as
the ridge rebuilds.

$$
CAM