000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130935 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC MON JUN 13 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 95W from 17N southward. The wave is moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: Scattered strong from 13N to 16N between 91W and 95W, and from 12N to 13N between 95W and 96W. The wave is moving through the area of the Gulf of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. This tropical wave will be one to watch with interest during the next several days. Forecast guidance suggests low pressure developing early next week to the south of Mexico with the potential for tropical cyclone development. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 11N100W to 09N108W to 10N114W to 06N119W. The ITCZ continues from 06N119W to 04N130W beyond 06N140W. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 150 nm north of the ITCZ between 131W and 140W. Scattered to numerous strong from 14N to 16N between 99W and 102W, and from 16N to 17N between 101W and 102W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong within a 30 nm radius of 02N79.5W. Scattered strong from 03N to 05N between 77W and 79w. Numerous strong from 06N to 08N between 78W and 80w. ...DISCUSSION... From 15N northward and from 120W eastward: An upper level trough is moving from the Eastern Pacific Ocean onshore, into southern California and the northernmost sections of Baja California. The trough passes through 35N117W to 32N117W, to 27N120W and 24N123W. A surface trough is in the Gulf of California, from 26N northwestward beyond northwestern Mexico. A surface ridge passes through 32N140W to 28N130W, 23N121W, and 18N109W. The surface pressure gradient that exists between the ridge and the trough is supporting moderate to fresh nw winds off the coast of Baja California and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere with combined seas in the range from 4 feet to 6 feet. The surface trough will linger as the ridge strengthens early this week. This will increase the areal coverage of moderate to fresh winds across the area. Northerly swell continues to propagate into the area, and seas will continue to build during the next couple of days reaching 5 to 7 feet. The GFS model develops a surface low pressure center near 16N107W at 48 hours into the forecast period. Sea heights of 8 feet are forecast to the northeast of the low center, between the low center and Mexico. From 15N southward and from 120W eastward: The 1012 mb low pressure center that was embedded in the monsoon trough six hours ago near 11N114W has weakened and dissipated. The 95W tropical wave is moving through the far eastern waters. Please read the section about tropical waves for more information about this feature. Light to gentle monsoonal flow prevails to the south of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate easterly trade wind prevail to the north of the monsoon trough. Sea heights are in the range of 4 feet to 6 feet. From 120W westward: The surface pressure gradient that exists between the high pressure that is prevailing in the northern waters, and the lower pressures that are near the ITCZ, is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds. The sea heights are in the range from 5 feet to 7 fee, except reaching 8 ft in the far western waters that are to the north of the ITCZ, where trade wind-generated wind waves are merging with SW and SE swell. The ridge will continue to prevail across the northern waters in order to maintain moderate to fresh trades to the north of the ITCZ. The southerly swell will continue to combine with the trade wind- generated wind waves in order to maintain combined seas reaching 8 feet in the far western waters that are to the north of the ITCZ during the next few days. $$ mt