000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130243
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC MON JUN 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the far eastern North Pacific
with axis currently south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection was noted north of 09N
between 88W and 100W. This tropical wave will be one to watch
with interest over the next several days as forecast guidance
suggests low pressure developing early next week south of Mexico
with the potential for tropical development. 

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 12N99W to low pressure
near 11N114W to 05N121W. The ITCZ extends from 05N121W to
05N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection was noted within 210 nm north of the monsoon trough
between 100W and 110W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

From 15N northward and from 120W eastward:                   

A surface ridge prevails over the northern waters north of 20N.
A weak surface trough extends across the length of the Baja
California peninsula. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and trough is supporting moderate to fresh nw winds off the
coast of Baja California and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere
with combined seas in the 4 feet to 6 foot range. The weak
trough will linger as the ridge strengthens early this week.
This will increase the areal coverage of moderate to fresh winds
over the area. Northerly swell continues to propagate into the
area, and seas will continue to build over the next couple of
days reaching 5 to 7 feet. 

From 15N southward and from 120W eastward:

Low pressure of 1012 mb is embedded within the monsoon trough
near 11N114W. A tropical wave is propagating across the far
eastern waters. This tropical wave is discussed in more detail
above. Light to gentle monsoonal flow prevails south of the
monsoon trough while gentle to moderate easterly trades prevails
north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4 to 6 foot range.  

From 120W westward:

The pressure gradient between high pressure ridge prevailing
over the northern waters and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trades. Seas are in the
5 to 7 foot range, except reaching 8 ft over the far western
waters north of the ITCZ where tradewind generated wind waves
are merging with SW and SE swell. The ridge will continue to
prevail across the northern waters to maintain moderate to fresh
trades north of the ITCZ. The southerly swell will continue to
combine with the tradewind generated wind waves to maintain
combined seas reaching 8 ft over the far western waters north of
the ITCZ over the next couple of days. 

$$
AL