000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122103
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC SUN JUN 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the far eastern North Pacific.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 10N
to 14N between 89W and 96W. This tropical wave will be one to
watch with interest over the next several days as forecast
guidance suggests low pressure developing early next week south
of Mexico with the potential for tropical development. 

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 12N100W to low
pressure near 11N113W to 05N121W. ITCZ from 05N121W to 05N130W
to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection was
noted within 210 nm north of the monsoon trough between 100W and
108W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 60 nm south
of the ITCZ west of 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

From 15N northward and from 120W eastward:                   

A surface ridge prevails over the northern waters north of 20N.
A weak surface trough extends across the length of the Baja
California peninsula. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds with combined
seas in the 4 feet to 6 foot range. The weak trough will linger
as the ridge strengthens early this week. This will increase the
northwest to north winds gradually to moderate to fresh.
Northerly swell continues to propagate into the area, and seas
will continue to build over the next couple of days reaching 5
to 7 feet. 

From 15N southward and from 120W eastward:

Low pressure of 1012 mb is embedded within the monsoon trough
near 14N110W. A tropical wave is propagating across the far
eastern waters. This tropical wave is discussed in more detail
above. Light to gentle monsoonal flow prevails south of the
monsoon trough while gentle to moderate easterly trades prevails
north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4 to 6 foot range.  

From 120W westward:

The pressure gradient between high pressure ridge prevailing
over the northern waters and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trades. Seas are in the
5 to 7 foot range, except reaching 8 ft over the far western
waters north of the ITCZ where tradewind generated wind waves
are merging with SW and SE swell. The ridge will continue to
prevail across the northern waters to maintain moderate to fresh
trades north of the ITCZ. The southerly swell will continue to
combine with the tradewind generated waves to maintain combined
seas reaching 8 ft over the far western waters north of the ITCZ
over the next couple of days. 

$$
AL