000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121617
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC SUN JUN 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 08N94W to 17N93W. The northern part
of the wave is moving through southeastern Mexico. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is present within 120 NM
either side of a line from 11N91W to 12N99W. The latest ECMWF
and UKMET model runs develop this system as it moves westward
during the next several days, while the latest GFS model run
does not.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 1011 MB low pressure near
10N114W to 04N122W to 04N127W. The ITCZ reaches from 04N127W to
07N136W. 1009 MB low pressure is located near 08N139W. Scattered
moderate convection is found from 07N to 11N between 136W and
139W.

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N and east of 120W:                

A surface ridge extends southeastward from high pressure near
38N147W to 30N135W to 22N114W. A weak surface trough runs the
length of the Gulf of California. Models maintain the trough and
strengthen the ridge during the next several days. The
strengthening ridge will increase the northwest-to-north winds
just south of the Baja Peninsula from moderate to fresh on
Tuesday. The winds will slacken by Friday as the ridge to the
north is weakened by an approaching cold front. North swell
being generated from gale-force winds off the coast of
California will continue to propagate into the area through
early next week. The north swell will maintain sea heights
between 8 and 9 feet north of 26N between 121W and 131W through
Tuesday. Fresh to strong winds previously over the northern Gulf
of California have subsided in response to filling low pressure
over southwestern Arizona. 

From 08N to 15N west of 120W:

The latest ASCAT imagery shows moderate to fresh trade winds
prevailing in this area. Model guidance suggests this wind
regime will continue for at least the next several days as the
pressure gradient between the subtropical high to the N and the
monsoon trough to the S remains in place. Trade wind wave energy
will be highest to the W of 130W.

South of 08N and east of 120W:

Long period south and southeast swells from the southern
hemisphere will maintain combined seas of 8 feet to 10 ft
through Wednesday. Seas will subside below 8 feet on Thursday as
the swell energy disperses. 

$$
CAM