000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC SUN JUN 12 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 91W/92W to the south of 17N. The northern part of the wave is moving through Guatemala. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 11N to 15N between 92W and 99W. This tropical wave will be one to watch with interest during the next several days. Forecast guidance suggests that a low pressure center may develop early next week to the south of Mexico, with the potential for development into a tropical cyclone. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N95W, to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 15N112W, to 06N124W to 09N136W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 08N140W. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 07N to 09N between 82W and 85W, within 240 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 100W and 102W...within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 110W and 113W, and within 60 nm to the west of the monsoon trough between the trough and 115W. Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 133W and 139W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 01N to 04N from 81W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... From 15N northward and from 120W eastward: Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 15N northward from 120W westward...and to the northwest of 17N120W 20N113W 24N112W 30N116W. A surface ridge is along 20N113W 24N127W beyond 32N136W. A weak surface trough covers the entire length of the Baja California peninsula. A relatively weak pressure pattern covers these waters with gentle winds and combined seas of 3 feet to 5 feet. The weak trough will linger as the ridge strengthens. The strengthening ridge will increase the northwest-to-north winds gradually from moderate to fresh. Northerly swell that is being generated from gale-force winds that are off the coast of California will propagate into the area starting today through early next week, building the sea heights to a range from 5 feet to 7 feet. In the Gulf of California: the winds will pulse to fresh to strong to the N of 30N during the early morning hours until just after sunrise, today and tomorrow, as low pressure near the southwestern part of Arizona deepens diurnally. From 15N southward and from 120W eastward: A tropical wave is along 91W/92W to the south of 17N. The northern part of the wave is moving through Guatemala. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 11N to 15N between 92W and 99W. A 1012 mb low pressure center is embedded within the monsoon trough near 15N112W. Light to gentle monsoonal flow prevails to the south of the monsoon trough while gentle easterly trade winds prevail to the north of the monsoon trough. The sea heights are in the 4 foot to 6 foot range. From 120W westward: An upper level trough passes through 32N126W to 25N126W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 15N northward from 120W westward...and to the northwest of 17N120W 20N113W 24N112W 30N116W. A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 08N140W. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 133W and 139W. The surface pressure gradient that exists between the high pressure that is prevailing in the northern waters, and the lower surface pressure that is embedded within the monsoon trough near 140W, is supporting fresh trades north of the low center to near 15N and to the west of 130W, with sea heights reaching near 8 ft in SE and SW swell. Gentle to moderate winds prevail outside the area of enhanced trade winds. The 1010 mb low pressure center will shift to the west of the area late on Sunday into Monday. The ridge will continue to build across the northern waters in order to maintain moderate to fresh trades to the N of the ITCZ. Southerly swell combined with trade wind- generated seas will help in order to maintain combined seas of 8 feet to 9 ft in the far western waters to the north of the ITCZ during the next couple of days. $$ mt