000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120224
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0305 UTC SUN JUN 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the far eastern North Pacific.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted north of
07N between 84W and 93W. This tropical wave will be one to watch
with interest over the next several days as forecast guidance
suggests low pressure developing early next week south of
Mexico with the potential for tropical development. 

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 09N94W to low pressure
near 15N110W to 05N121W to 09N136W to low pressure near 08N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection was noted
within 120 nm north of the monsoon trough between 97W and 102W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within
150 nm south of the monsoon trough between 103W and 107W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within
120 nm south and 90 nm north of the monsoon trough between 132W
and 138W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

From 15N northward and from 120W eastward:                   

A surface ridge prevails over the northern waters. A weak
surface trough extends across the length of the Baja California
peninsula. A relatively weak pressure pattern covers these
waters with gentle winds and combined seas of 3 feet to 5 feet.
The weak trough will linger as the ridge strengthens.
This will increase the northwest to north winds gradually to
moderate to fresh. Northerly swell generated from gales off the
coast of California will propagate into the area tonight through
early next week, building the sea heights to a range from 5 feet
to 7 feet. Over the Gulf of California: winds will pulse to
fresh to strong to the N of 29N during the morning hours and the
early afternoon hours during the next couple of days as low
pressure near the southwestern part of Arizona deepens
diurnally. 

From 15N southward and from 120W eastward:

Low pressure of 1012 mb is embedded within the monsoon trough
near 14N110W. A tropical wave is propagating across the far
eastern waters. This tropical wave is discussed in more detail
above. Light to gentle monsoonal flow prevails south of the
monsoon trough while gentle easterly trades prevails north of
the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4 to 6 foot range.  

From 120W westward:

The pressure gradient between high pressure ridge prevailing
over the northern waters and low pressure embedded within the
monsoon trough near 140W is supporting fresh trades north of the
low to near 15N and west of 130W with seas reaching near 8 ft in
SE and SW swell. Outside this area of enhanced trades, gentle to
moderate winds prevail. The area of low pressure will shift west
of the area late Sunday into Monday. The ridge will continue to
build across the northern waters to maintain moderate to fresh
trades N of the ITCZ. Southerly swell combined with tradewind
generated seas will help maintain combined seas of 8 to 9 ft
over the far western waters north of the ITCZ over the next
couple of days. 

$$
AL