000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112116
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2105 UTC SAT JUN 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W and N of 05N, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted north of 06N between 84W and 88W.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N86W to 09N94W to low
pressure near 14N110W to 05N121W to low pressure near 08N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection was noted
within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 88W and 92W.
Scattered moderate convection was noted from 10N to 14N between
96W and 105W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was
noted within 120 nm s of the monsoon trough between 131W and
139W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

From 15N northward and from 120W eastward:                   

A surface ridge prevails over the northern waters. A weak
surface trough extends across the length of the Baja California
peninsula. A relatively weak pressure pattern covers these
waters with light to gentle winds and combined seas of 3 feet to
5 feet. The weak trough will linger, as the ridge strengthens.
This will increase the northwest to north winds gradually to
moderate to fresh winds. Northerly swell generated from gales
off the coast of California will propagate into the area tonight
through early next week, building the sea heights to a range
from 5 feet to 7 feet. Over the Gulf of California: winds will
pulse to fresh to strong to the N of 29N during the morning
hours and the early afternoon hours during the next few days as
low pressure near the southwestern part of Arizona deepens
diurnally. 

From 15N southward and from 120W eastward:

Low pressure of 1012 mb is embedded within the monsoon trough
near 14N110W. A tropical wave is propagating across the far
eastern waters. The tropical wave will be one to watch with
interest over the next several days as forecast guidance
suggests low pressure developing early next week. There remains
uncertainty with the strength of the low which will contribute
to uncertainty of winds and seas off the coast of SW mexico. 

From 120W westward:

The pressure gradient between high pressure ridge prevailing
over the northern waters and low pressure embedded within the
monsoon trough near 140W is supporting fresh trades north of the
low to near 15N and west of 130W with seas reaching near 8 ft in
SE and SW swell. Outside this area of enhanced trades, gentle to
moderate winds prevail. The area of low pressure will shift west
of the area late Sunday into Monday. The ridge will continue to
build across the northern waters to maintain moderate to fresh
trades N of the ITCZ. Southerly swell combined with tradewind
generated seas will help maintain combined seas of 8 to 9 ft
over the far western waters north of the ITCZ over the next
couple of days. 

$$
AL