000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111527
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1527 UTC Sat Jun 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 86W to the north of 04N. Associated
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is to the north
of 08N between the tropical wave and 96W, and also within 240 nm
southwest of a line from 08N90W to 13N102W.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure near 14N110W to
06N110W to 06N120W to low pressure near 08N140W. No intertropical
convergence zone axis is present to the east of 140W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 240 nm southeast of the axis between
110W and 122W, and also within 150 nm either side of the axis to
the west of 130W.

...DISCUSSION...   

From 15N northward and from 120W eastward:                   

A surface ridge will continue to extend across this area from the
west-northwest. Light northwest-north winds prevail outside of the
Gulf of California along with combined seas of 3 to 5 feet. The
winds are forecast to gradually increase to moderate Sunday night
through early next week, even increasing to fresh just offshore of
the Baja California peninsula. Meanwhile, stronger winds to the
north of the area offshore of southern California will send fresh
northwest swell into the area with combined seas building 4 to 7
feet Sunday night through Tuesday, with 6 to 8 feet thereafter.

In the Gulf of California, low pressure will slightly deepen over
southwest Arizona with southerly winds across the Gulf to the
north of 30.5N increasing to fresh to strong by this afternoon
with seas building to 5 to 7 feet. These winds will continue
through tonight, diminishing by Sunday morning as the low
temporarily weakens. The low will then deepen again late Sunday
night allowing for another pulse of fresh to strong winds, then
will weaken again Sunday morning. The remainder of the Gulf of
California is dominated by light and variable, mainly southerly
winds, and seas of 2 feet or less. Winds will veer to northerly by
early Monday, then will become variable again by mid-week.

From 15N southward and from 120W eastward:

A weak 1010 mb low pressure area anchors the monsoon trough near
14N110W. Mainly light and variable winds are to the north of 09N
with moderate southerly winds to the south of 09N. A tropical wave
is in the process of exiting Central America with the northern
portion approaching southeast Mexico. Model guidance is split with
the evolution of this tropical wave with some of the global models
developing a well-defined low pressure area along it by early in
the week, with other solutions showing a much more weak and broad
low pressure area. Thus, uncertainty exists early in the week with
respect to marine conditions. Otherwise, mainly light onshore
winds will prevail, except shifting to offshore and increasing to
moderate during the overnight hours with nocturnal drainage flow.

From 120W westward:

High pressure ridging extends across the waters to the north of
the monsoon trough. Weak 1010 mb low pressure is embedded in the
monsoon trough near 08N140W and is moving west of the area. The
pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressures
associated with the monsoon trough is supporting moderate trades
across the waters to the west of 120W. Combined seas are mainly 4
to 6 feet to the north of the monsoon trough, except on the north
side of the low pressure area where the pressure gradient is tight
enough to support 6 to 8 feet with the aid of fresh trades. The
ridging is forecast to tighten through the early part of the week,
allowing for trades to increase slightly to moderate to fresh
which will build combined seas to 6 to 9 feet across the waters to
the west of 120W. The ridging and pressure gradient will then
weaken by mid-week as a weak cold front or trough drops south into
the area.

$$
JLewitsky