000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110950 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC SAT JUN 11 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 15N85W 10N86W 06N86W, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 11N to 14N between 89W and 92W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 01N to 16N from 92W eastward to Central America and South America. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 13N110W, to 07N120W, and to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 08N140W. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 113W and 123W, and within 300 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 131W and 139W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N to 11N between 90W and 100W, and from 08N to 12N between 104W and 106W. ...DISCUSSION... From 15N northward and from 120W eastward: A surface ridge passes through 32N135W to 14N120W. A weak surface trough passes through southern California, to the southern part of Baja California. A relatively weak pressure pattern covers these waters with light to gentle winds and combined seas of 3 feet to 5 feet. The weak trough will linger, as the ridge strengthens. This will increase the northwest- to-north winds gradually to moderate-to-fresh winds. Fresh northerly swell will propagate into the area from Saturday night through early next week, building the sea heights to a range from 5 feet to 7 feet. The Gulf of California: gentle to moderate southeast-to-south wind flow covers the Gulf, with locally fresh winds to the north of 30 N. Seas are in the 1 foot to 3 ft range to the south of 30N, and in the range from 3 feet to 5 feet to the north of 29N where the winds are the fastest. The winds are forecast to pulse to fresh to strong to the N of 29N, during the morning hours and into the early afternoon hours, during the next few days as low pressure near the southwestern part of Arizona deepens diurnally. These conditions will persist into early Monday, and then they will diminish thereafter as the low pressure area weakens. The winds that are to the south of 29N will veer to the northwest-to-north early next week. From 15N southward and from 120W eastward: A Weak 1010 MB low pressure anchors the monsoon trough near 13N1010W. A tropical wave is along 85W/86W from 15N southward. The wave is moving across Central America. Light to moderate monsoonal flow prevails to the S of 07N with light and variable flow to the north of 07N. Combined sea heights are 3 feet to 5 feet to the east of 100W, and from 4 feet to 7 feet to the west of 100W. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will propagate northward this weekend through early next week. This will help to build the combined sea heights to a range from 6 feet to 9 feet, increasing from the southwest to the northeast. The tropical wave will help to pulse winds to moderate to fresh through the gap in topography into the Gulf of Papagayo tonight. From 120W westward: An upper level trough passes through a 32N124W cyclonic circulation center, to 27N124W, 22N125W and 20N128W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is along the Mexico coast near 23N106w. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Eastern Pacific Ocean from 22N to 26N between 102W and 110W. Most of the area that is from 10N northward, away from the ITCZ and from 105W westward, consists of comparatively drier air in subsidence. A surface ridge extends from 14N120W to 20N126W to 28N132W, beyond 32N135W. The surface pressure gradient, that exists between the surface ridge and lower pressure in the monsoon trough, is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough with combined seas of 3 to 6 feet. Trade winds, from 10N to 13N between 136W and 140W, will increase later on Saturday night into early on Sunday morning, and through the early part of the next week as the ridge continues to build into the area. Moderate to fresh trade winds will help to build seas to a range from 5 feet to 8 feet starting Saturday night, with these conditions persisting through the early part of the next week. Winds will increase locally to strong on the northern side of the low pressure area, prior to the low pressure center moving to the west of 140W, due to a locally tighter pressure gradient. The sea heights will reach 8 feet in swell, from 29N northward between 123W and 130W, on Sunday around noontime. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to 9 feet during the early morning hours of Monday, from 27N northward from 123W westward. The wind speeds will reach 20 knots or less for the next few days in that area. $$ mt