000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110236
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0306 UTC SAT JUN 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W. The wave is moving
westward at around 10 to 15 KT. Associated scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 14N between
81W and 90W. 

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure near 15N109W to
08N112W to 07N120W to 10N131W to low pressure near 08N136W to
07N140W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 07N to 12N
between 90W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection was noted
within 120 NM S of the monsoon trough between 110W and 121W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

From 15N northward and from 120W eastward:                   

High pressure ridge extends to near 18N117W. Weak surface
troughing extends across the Baja California peninsula. A
relatively weak pressure pattern covers these waters with light
to gentle winds and combined seas of 3 to 5 feet. The weak
troughing will linger, as the ridging strengthens. This will
gradually increase northwest-north winds to moderate to fresh.
Meanwhile, fresh northerly swell will propagate into the area
Saturday night through early next week building seas to 5 to 7
feet.

In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southeast-south
flow covers the Gulf, with locally fresh winds to the north of
30 N. Seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range to the south of 30N, and 3
to 5 feet to the north of 29N where the winds are the strongest.
Winds are forecast to pulse to fresh to strong N of 29N during
the morning into the early afternoon hours the next few days as
low pressure near southwest Arizona diurnally deepens. These
conditions will persist into early Monday, then will diminish
thereafter as the low pressure area weakens. Winds to the south
of 29N will veer to the northwest-north early next week.

From 15N southward and from 120W eastward:

Weak 1010 MB low pressure anchors the monsoon trough near
15N109W. A tropical wave is moving into eastern Central America
currently across far western Panama. Light to moderate monsoonal
flow prevails S of 07N with light and variable flow to the north
of 07N. Combined seas are 3 to 5 feet to the east of 100W and 4
to 7 feet to the west of 100W. Cross-equatorial southerly swell
will propagate northward this weekend through early next week.
This will help build combined seas to 6 to 9 feet increasing
from the southwest to northeast. The tropical wave will help
pulse winds to moderate to fresh through the gap in topography
into the Gulf of Papagayo tonight.

From 120W westward:

High pressure of 1031 MB centered NW of the area near 38N149W
extends a ridge SE into the forecast area near 30N134W to
18N117W. The pressure gradient between the surface ridge and
lower pressure in the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to
moderate winds N of the monsoon trough with combined seas of 3
to 6 feet. Trades will increase Saturday night through early
next week as the high pressure ridge continues to build into the
area. Moderate to fresh trades will help to build seas to 5 to 8
feet starting Saturday night, with these conditions persisting
through early next week. Winds will locally increase to strong
on the northern side of the low pressure area prior to it moving
to the west of 140W due to a locally tighter pressure gradient.

$$
AL