000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102109
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2106 UTC FRI JUN 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W. The wave is moving
westward at around 10 to 15 KT. Associated scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between
80W and 88W. 

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure near 15N109W to
08N120W to 10N132W to low pressure near 08N136W to 07N140W.
Scattered moderate convection was noted from 07N to 13N between
96W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 120
NM S of the monsoon trough between 110W and 120W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

From 15N northward and from 120W eastward:                   

Broad surface ridging extends just to the east of 120W from west
of the area. Weak surface troughing extends across the Baja
California peninsula. A relatively weak pressure pattern covers
these waters with light to gentle winds and combined seas of 3
to 5 feet. The weak troughing will linger, as the ridging
strengthens. This will gradually increase northwest-north winds
to moderate to fresh. Meanwhile, fresh northerly swell will
propagate into the area Saturday night through early next week
building seas to 5 to 7 feet.

In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southeast-south
flow covers the Gulf, with locally fresh winds to the north of
29N. Seas are 2 feet of less to the south of 29N, and 3 to 5
feet to the north of 29N where the winds are the strongest.
Winds are forecast to pulse to fresh to strong N of 29N during
the morning into the early afternoon hours the next few days as
low pressure near southwest Arizona diurnally deepens. These
conditions will persist into early Monday, then will diminish
thereafter as the low pressure area weakens. Winds to the south
of 29N will veer to the northwest-north early next week.

From 15N southward and from 120W eastward:

Weak 1010 MB low pressure anchors the monsoon trough near
15N108W. A tropical wave is moving into eastern Central America
currently across far western Panama. Light to moderate monsoonal
flow prevails S of 07N with light and variable northerly flow to
the north of 07N. Combined seas are 3 to 5 feet to the east of
100W and 4 to 7 feet to the west of 100W. Cross-equatorial
southerly swell will propagate northward this weekend through
early next week. This will help build combined seas to 6 to 9
feet increasing from the southwest to northeast. The tropical
wave will help pulse winds to moderate to fresh through the gap
in topography into the Gulf of Papagayo tonight.

From 120W westward:

High pressure of 1031 MB centered NW of the area near 37N150W
extends a ridge SE into the forecast area near 30N132W to
15N115W. The pressure gradient between the surface ridge and
lower pressure in the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to
moderate winds N of the monsoon trough with combined seas of 3
to 6 feet. Trades will increase Saturday night through early
next week as the high pressure ridge builds into the area.
Moderate to fresh trades will help to build seas to 5 to 8 feet
commencing Saturday night, with these conditions persisting
through early next week. Winds will locally increase to strong
on the northern side of the low pressure area prior to it moving
to the west of 140W due to a tight pressure gradient.

$$
AL