000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101506 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1506 UTC FRI JUN 10 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 80W. The wave is moving westward at around 10 to 15 KT. Associated scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is to the north of 02N and to the east of 82W, with heavy rainfall likely over northwest Colombia, and across Panama and Costa Rica. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N83W to 07N90W then resumes from 14N96W to low pressure near 15N108W to 08N118W to 10N132W to low pressure near 09N135W to 06N140W. No intertropical convergence zone axis is present to the east of 140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 11N between 95W and 98W, within 90 NM southwest of a line from 07N91W to 10N104W, from 15N to 18N between 102W and 105W, and also within 180 NM southeast of the axis between 108W and 113W. ...DISCUSSION... From 15N northward and from 120W eastward: Broad surface ridging extends just to the east of 120W from west of the area. Weak surface troughing extends from the northern Baja California peninsula south-southwest through 24N115W to 20N116W. A relatively weak pressure pattern covers these waters with light to moderate winds and combined seas of 3 to 5 feet. The weak troughing will linger, drifting ever so slowly eastward through Saturday morning, dissipating by Saturday afternoon as the ridging strengthens and extends to 20N110W. The strengthened ridging will persist through Tuesday with gradually increasing northwest-north flow reaching moderate to fresh winds, strongest just offshore of the Baja California peninsula. Meanwhile, fresh northerly swell will propagate into the area Saturday night through early next week building seas to 5 to 7 feet. In the Gulf of California, light to moderate southeast-south flow covers the Gulf, except moderate to fresh to the north of 29N. Seas are 2 feet of less to the south of 29N, and 3 to 5 feet to the north of 29N where the winds are the strongest. Winds are forecast to pulse to fresh to strong N of 29N or 30N during the morning into the early afternoon hours the next few days as low pressure near southwest Arizona diurnally deepens. These conditions will persist into early Monday, then will diminish thereafter as the low pressure area weakens. Winds to the south of 29N will veer to the northwest-north early next week. From 15N southward and from 120W eastward: Weak 1009 MB low pressure is embedded in the monsoon trough near 15N108W. A tropical wave is moving into eastern Central America currently across western Panama. This feature is discussed more above in the Tropical Waves section. Light to moderate south- southwest flow prevails to the south of the monsoon trough with mainly light northerly flow to the north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are 3 to 5 feet to the east of 100W and 4 to 7 feet to the west of 100W. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will propagate northward this weekend through early next week. This will build combined seas to 6 to 9 feet increasing from the southwest to northeast. From 120W westward: Broad surface high pressure ridging covers the waters to the north of the monsoon trough. This ridging is disrupted by a surface trough which is the remnants of a stationary front. The trough extends from 29N136W to beyond 25N140W and is drifting westward. The trough will dissipate during the next 24 hours while the ridging strengthens and rebuilds. Weak 1010 MB low pressure is embedded in the monsoon trough near 09N135W. This low will continue to move westward around 5-10 KT, moving west of 140W by Sunday night. Currently, light to moderate trades are found across the waters to the west of 120W, with combined seas of 3 to 5 feet to the north of 15N, and 4 to 6 feet to the south of the monsoon trough. Trades will increase Saturday night through early next week as the ridging rebuilds. Moderate to fresh trades will help to build seas to 5 to 8 feet commencing Saturday night, with these conditions persisting through early next week. Winds will locally increase to strong on the northern side of the low pressure area prior to it moving to the west of 140W due to a tight pressure gradient. $$ JLewitsky