000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100931 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC FRI JUN 10 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 80W from 15N southward. The wave is moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N to Panama from 80W eastward to Panama and Colombia. Isolated moderate from 06N to Ecuador from 80W eastward. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough starts near a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 15N109W, to 09N122W, to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 10N132W, to 06N138W. The ITCZ continues from 06N138W beyond 06N140w. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong within 60 nm on either side of the line that runs from 06N91W to 07N97W, to 07N100w to 08N102W to 11N104W to 10N107W to 08N109W to 07N112W, and from 03N to 07N between 117W and 121W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 30 nm on either side of the line from 08N82W to 09N84W to 10N87W to 11N87W. Isolated moderate to locally strong from 13N to 17N between 96W and 106W. ...DISCUSSION... From 15N northward and from 120W eastward: Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the eastern Pacific ocean from 15N northward from 120W westward. Comparatively lower surface pressure is in the Baja California peninsula. The surface pressure gradient that exists between the area of high pressure and the Baja California lower surface pressures is supporting gentle to moderate northwest winds with combined seas of 4 feet to 5 feet across the waters that are outside the Gulf of California. The synoptic environment will change little during the upcoming weekend,which will maintain the similar wind and sea conditions. The winds will increase offshore of the United States California waters this weekend, which will bring fresh northwest swells into the waters west of 110W by early next week. This swell will merge with long period southwesterly cross-equatorial swells in order to produce combined seas of 6 feet to 8 feet by the early part of the next week. Expect 20 to 25 knot southeast-to-south wind flow in the Gulf of California in about 39 hours, or in the early afternoon hours on Saturday. From 15N southward and from 120W eastward: A middle level to upper level trough passes through the coast of Mexico near 27N109W, to 22N107W, to 14N109w. The monsoon trough starts near a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 15N109W. This low pressure center is forecast to linger across the same general area through Friday. it will begin to drift westward this weekend as an elongated northeast to southwest open trough, before shifting to the west of 120W on Monday afternoon. Light to moderate SW monsoon flow prevails with sea heights of 3 to 5 feet to the east of 100W, and sea heights of 4 to 7 feet to the west of 100W. From 120W westward: An upper level trough passes through 33N129W to 28N129W and 22N129W. A separate upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 30N128W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward from 117W westward. A surface trough is along 31N136W beyond 26N140W. No significant deep convective precipitation. A surface ridge passes through 32N132W to 28N131W to 18N125W and 12N123W. The surface pressure gradient that exists between the ridge and the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to locally moderate winds to the north of the monsoon trough with sea heights in the 3 feet to 5 feet range. The ridge will build across the northern waters this weekend, which will strengthen the winds gradually through the next week with seas building to a range from 6 feet to 9 feet. A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 10N132W, embedded in the monsoon trough. This low pressure center will weaken as it moves westward into the upcoming weekend. $$ mt