000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092113
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC THU JUN 09 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
  
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure near 13N108W to
08N117W to low pressure near 11N131W to 09N140W. No
intertropical convergence zone axis is present east of 140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 15N between
92W and 99W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180
NM S of the monsoon trough between 108W and 120W. 

A tropical wave is approaching the eastern portion of the
discussion waters, currently along 77W. Associated scattered
moderate convection is north of 02N east of 87W.
 
...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N east of 120W:                                 

Broad high pressure ridging extends into the western portion,
while elongated surface troughing stretches along the Baja
California peninsula. The pressure gradient between the area of
high pressure and the surface trough over the Baja California
peninsula is supporting moderate northwest winds with combined
seas of 4 to 6 feet across the waters outside of the Gulf of
California. The synoptic environment will change little through
the upcoming weekend which will maintain in the wind and sea
conditions. Winds will increase offshore of the United States
California waters this weekend which will bring fresh northwest
swells into the waters west of 110W by early next week. This
swell will merge with long period southwesterly cross-equatorial
swells to produce combined seas of 6-8 feet by the early part of
next week. In the Gulf of California, moderate to occasionally
fresh southeast to south flow will prevail through Saturday.

South of 15N east of 120W:

Weak low pressure of 1012 MB is anchoring the monsoon trough
near 13N108W. This low is forecast to linger across the same
general area through Friday, then will begin to drift west this
weekend as an elongated northeast to southwest open trough
before shifting west of 120W Monday afternoon. Light to moderate
SW monsoon flow prevails with seas of 3 to 5 feet east of 100W,
with seas of 4 to 7 feet to the west of 100W. 

West of 120W:

Weak high pressure ridging prevails from 30n to 18N118W. The
pressure gradient between the weak ridge and the monsoon trough
is supporting gentle to locally moderate winds N of the monsoon
trough with seas in the 3-5 ft range. The ridge will build
across the northern waters this weekend, which will gradually
strengthen winds through next week with seas building to 6-9 ft.
Meanwhile, low pressure of 1013 MB is embedded in the monsoon
trough near 11N131W. This low will weaken as it moves westward
into the upcoming weekend.

$$
AL