000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091524 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC THU JUN 09 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 14N92W to low pressure near 13N108W to 08N115W to low pressure near 11N131W to 09N140W. No intertropical convergence zone axis is present east of 140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 16N between 86W and 98W, from 06N to 08N between 107W and 116W, from 06N to 08N between 129w and 134W, and from 10N to 12N between 134W and 137W. A tropical wave is approaching the eastern portion of the discussion waters, currently along 77W. Associated scattered moderate convection is north of 02N east of 77w. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N east of 120W: Broad high pressure ridging extends into the western portion, while elongated surface troughing stretches along the Baja California peninsula. Moderate northwest flow and combined seas of 4 to 6 feet prevail across the waters outside of the Gulf of California. Little change in these conditions is expected through the upcoming weekend, except winds may temporarily become light and southwesterly just offshore of the Baja California Peninsula. Winds will increase offshore of the United States California waters this weekend sending fresh northwest swells into the waters west of 110W by early next week. Meanwhile long period southwesterly cross-equatorial swells will arrive across this same area. As a result, combined seas will build to 6-8 feet by the early part into the middle of next week. In the Gulf of California, moderate to occasionally fresh southeast to south flow will prevail through Saturday, except in the waters north of 29N where starting Saturday afternoon winds will increase to fresh to strong as low pressure just to the north over southwest Arizona or southeast California deepens, increasing the local pressure gradient. Winds will veer to the west-northwest Sunday night through early next week across the waters south of 29N. South of 15N east of 120W: Weak and broad low pressure at 1008 MB is embedded in the monsoon trough near 13N108W. This low is forecast to linger across the same general area through Friday, then will begin to drift west this weekend as an elongated northeast to southwest open trough, shifting west of 120W Monday afternoon. Light to moderate west-northwest winds prevail to the north of the monsoon trough, with light to moderate southwest-west winds to the south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 3 to 5 feet prevail to the east of 100W, with seas of 4 to 7 feet to the west of 100W. Cross-equatorial southwesterly swells will propagate north of the Equator helping to build combined seas to 4 to 7 feet across the area this weekend. Seas will continue to build through early next week, increasing to 6 to 9 feet. West of 120W: Weak and dissipating high pressure at 1018 MB is located near 28N133W. Low pressure at 1016 MB is to the west of the high near 28N139W. An occluded then stationary front wraps around this low extending through 29N138W to 26N137W to beyond 23N140W. Scattered showers are possible near the frontal boundary and low. The low is forecast to dissipate during the next 24 hours as will the front, which will then drift back to the west as a remnant trough through Friday. High pressure ridging will build back across the northern waters this weekend, gradually strengthening through next week. Meanwhile, low pressure at 1012 MB is embedded in the monsoon trough near 11N131W. This low will weaken as it moves westward into the upcoming weekend. Currently, light to moderate flow and seas of 3 to 5 feet prevail to the north of the monsoon trough, with light to moderate southerly flow to the south of the monsoon trough. Winds will increase to the north of the monsoon trough this weekend, as the ridging rebuilds in the wake of the dissipating front, resulting in moderate to fresh trades through early next week. Combined seas will build to 6-9 feet across the waters to the west of 120W. $$ JLewitsky