000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080928
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC WED JUN 08 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The center of Tropical Depression One-E is near 16.1N 94.8W at
0900 UTC, moving N, or 360 degrees at 2 knots. The estimated
minimum surface pressure remains 1006 mb. The maximum sustained
wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. The sea heights
across this area of winds are estimated to range from 6 to 8
feet. Widely scattered moderate to strong convection associated
to TD One-E was noted within 75 nm across the northern
semicircle, and mostly impacting land areas along the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Active convection will continue to affect portions
of southeastern Mexico from Chiapas, Mexico to Guatemala, Belize
and Honduras. Due to recent heavy rains across portions of this
region, the possibility continues today for areas of localized
flooding, especially across elevated terrain where landslides
may occur also. The depression is forecast to continue to weaken
as it drifts northward and loses its tropical characteristics
this afternoon, and then dissipates along the coast or just
inland across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds and seas across
the gulf will gradually diminish today. Please refer to the
latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers
MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC, and the full forecast advisory under
Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for additional details. 
  
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 13N103W to 10N115W to low pres
near 11N128W to 07.5N135W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N138W to
beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
within 330 nm sw of the coastline of Central America between 80W
and 97W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted within 60 nm n and 240 nm s of the monsoon trough between
103W AND 126W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
from 07N to 13.5N between 127W and 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

Weak high pressure centered near 28N130W extends a ridge se to
near 17N115W. The pressure gradient between the area of high
pressure and surface low pressure near 11N128W is supporting
fresh winds over the N semicircle of the low. This area of low
pressure is forecast to continue to weaken with winds and seas
expected to gradually diminish to 15-20 kt and 5-7 ft by
Wednesday night. Outside of this low, the pressure gradient
between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the
monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting
moderate to locally fresh trades S of 20N and W of 120W and seas
in the 4-6 ft range. To the east of the high center, the
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the
Gulf of California is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds off
the coast of Baja California with seas in the 4-6 ft range.
Fresh southerly winds prevail inside the Gulf of California and
are expected to increase to around 20 kt during the next few
afternoons through evenings along prominent coastlines due to
daytime heating. SW monsoon flow prevails E of 100W with light
to moderate winds prevailing outside the influence of TD One-E.
Active weather is expected to continue n of 10N and e of 100W
during the next few days as this moist sw flow persists.

$$
Stripling