000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080235
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC WED JUN 08 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The center of Tropical Depression One-E at 0300 UTC is near
15.9N 94.6W, moving NE, or 45 degrees at 3 knots. The estimated
minimum surface pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. The sea heights that
are within this area of winds are estimated to be ranging from 6
feet to 8 feet. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection associated to TD One-E was noted N of 10N between 90W
and 94W. Active convection will continue to affect portions of
southern Mexico from Chiapas, Mexico to Guatemala, with the
possibility of localized flooding, especially in areas of
elevated terrain where landslides may occur also. The depression
is forecast to move northeast and inland to a position near
16.3N 94.3W at 12 hours, and near 16.5N94.0W in 24 hours when
winds and seas over the forecast waters will decrease below
advisory criteria. Please refer to the latest NHC public
advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC, and the
full forecast advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21
KNHC for additional details. 
  
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 12N98W to low pres near 10N128W
to 07N132W. The ITCZ extends from 07N132W to beyond 06N140W.
Scattered moderate convection was noted within 90 NM S of the
monsoon trough between 100W AND 112W. Scattered moderate
convection was noted within 120 NM S of the monsoon trough
between 118W AND 124W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted from 10n to 12n between 128W and 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

Weak high pressure centered near 27N130W extends a ridge SE to
near 16N114W. The pressure gradient between the area of high
pressure and surface low pressure of 1008 mb near 10N127W is
supporting fresh winds over the N semicircle of the low. The
area of low pressure is forecast to continue to weaken with
winds and seas expected to fall below advisory criteria by
Wednesday night. Outside of the low the pressure gradient
between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the
monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting
moderate to locally fresh trades S of 20N and W of 120W and seas
in the 4-6 ft range. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressure over the Gulf of California is supporting
moderate to fresh NW winds off the coast of Baja California with
seas in the 4-6 ft range. SW monsoon flow prevails E of 100W
with light to moderate winds prevailing outside the influence of
TD One-E.

$$
AL