000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072100
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The center of Tropical Depression One-E at 2100 UTC is near
15.5N 94.7W, moving NE, or 050 degrees at 5 knots. The estimated
minimum surface pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. The sea heights that
are within this area of winds are estimated to be ranging from 6
feet to 9 feet. Numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection associated to TD One-E was noted N of 13N between 91W
and 95W. Active convection will continue to affect portions of
southern Mexico from eastern Oaxaca to Chiapas, Mexico with the
possibility of localized flooding, especially in areas of
elevated terrain where landslides may occur also. The depression
is forecast to move northeast to a position that is near 16.0N
94.3W at 24 hours, and to dissipate in 36 hours. Please refer to
the latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers
MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC, and the full forecast advisory under
Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for additional details. 
  
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 12N97W to low pres near 11N127W
to 07N132W. The ITCZ extends from 07N132W to beyond 06N140W.
Scattered moderate convection was noted within 90 NM S of the
monsoon trough between 100W AND 110W. Scattered moderate
convection was noted within 120 NM S of the monsoon trough
between 117W AND 121W. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection was noted within 1290 NM SE and 75 NM NW semicircles
of low pressure centered near 10N126W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

Weak high pressure centered near 26n130w extends a ridge SE to
near 16N116W. The pressure gradient between the area of high
pressure and surface low pressure of 1008 mb near 10N127W is
supporting fresh to strong winds over the NW semicircle of the
low. Fresh to strong winds also prevail within 90 nm SE
semicircle of the low. The area of low pressure is forecast to
continue to weaken with winds and seas expected to fall below
advisory criteria by Thursday morning. Outside of the low the
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower
pressure in the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ
is supporting moderate to locally fresh trades S of 20N and W of
120W and seas in the 4-6 ft range. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure over the Gulf of California is
supporting moderate to fresh NW winds off the coast of Baja
California with seas in the 4-6 ft range. SW monsoon flow
prevails E of 100W with light to moderate winds prevailing
outside the influence of TD One-E.

$$
AL