000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071550 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... The center of Tropical Depression One-E at 1500 UTC is near 15.3N 95.0W, moving ENE, or 060 degrees,6 knots. This position is about 65 nm/100 km to the south-southeast of Salina Cruz in Mexico. The estimated minimum surface pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. The sea heights that are within this area of winds are estimated to be ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet. Convective precipitation: Numerous strong from 13N to 15N between 91W and 93W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12N to 17N between 93W and 97W. Expect this cluster of precipitation to continue to shift northeastward and more onshore across the state of Chiapas, Mexico with the possibility of localized flooding, especially in areas of elevated terrain where landslides may occur also. The depression is forecast to move northeast to a position that is along the coast near 16.0N 94.6W at 24 hours, and to dissipate in 36 hours. Please read the latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC, and the full forecast advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for additional details. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough starts near 11N119W, to a 1007 mb low pressure center that is near 10N126W, to 07N134W. The ITCZ continues from 07N134W beyond 07N140W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate isolated strong from 08N to 11N between 96W and 101W, and from 07N to 09N between 108W and 112W. ...DISCUSSION... An upper level trough passes through 32N139W to 27N141W to 18N140W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the west of the line that passes through 32N129W beyond 17N140W. An upper level trough passes through Mexico near 23N101W to 14N110W and 10N116W. A surface trough is along a northwest-to-southeast line in the Gulf of California, through 32N115W to 25N112W. The trough is forecast to meander in this general position through Thursday night, and then weaken slightly on Friday and Saturday. Surface high pressure covers the Eastern Pacific Ocean from 14N northward from 120W westward. A 1017 mb high pressure center is near 26N130W. A ridge extends from the 1017 mb high center to 15N120W. The associated pressure gradient is expected to maintain moderate to fresh northwest wind flow across the open pacific waters that are to the northeast and east of the ridge, and afternoon heating across the Baja peninsula, increasing winds to close to 20 knots each afternoon and evening. Fresh to locally strong southerly flow is occurring in central and southern sections of the Gulf of California. These wind speeds will diminish to fresh flow later this morning and afternoon, and then they are expected to persist through Friday. The sea heights across central parts of the Gulf will remain in the range of 4 feet to 5 feet through this afternoon, and then diminish very slightly through Friday. Light westerly wind flow generally prevails from 10N/11N northward into the Mexican coast. Moderate to fresh south to southwesterly winds continue to the south of a weak low level trough that extends from the areas that surround TD One-E, toward the monsoon trough. Little change in this overall pattern is expected through Friday. A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 10N126W. Fresh to strong ne winds are currently within 180 nm over the northern semicircle of the low center, where the sea heights are ranging from 7 feet to 8 feet. Active convective precipitation continues to flare up during the nighttime hours, and it may re-develop again on Tuesday night. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 09N to 11N between 126W and 128w. Scattered moderate from 09N to 11N between 128W and 130W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 07N to 09N between 121W and 123W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 06n to 10N between 118W and 124W. The 1017 mb surface high at 26N130W is producing a weak pressure gradient to the north of the monsoon trough and the 1007 mb low pressure center that is near 10N126W. Moderate to fresh northeast tradewinds are to the south of 20N, accompanied by sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet. A dissipating stationary front passes through 30N135W beyond 26N140W. Moderate southerly wind flow currently precedes the front across the waters from 27N to 32N within 150 nm to the east of the front. Expect only 4 feet to 6 feet combined seas to the west of the front. $$ mt