000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071004
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

.Tropical Depression One-E is estimated near 14.6N 95.4W at 0900
UTC, moving ENE, or 070 deg, at 6 kt. The estimated minimum
surface pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt, occurring within 75 nm across the nw
semicircle and within 150 nm across the se semicircle. Seas
within this area of winds are estimated at 6-9 ft. Scattered
strong convection is currently observed within 120 nm over the
NE quadrant, across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and extends inland
another 60-90 nm. Expect this cluster of convection to continue
to shift ne and further onshore across the state of Chiapas,
Mexico with the possibility of localized flooding, especially in
areas of elevated terrain where landslides may also occur. The
depression is forecast to move northeast to along the coast near
15.3N 94.2W and quickly weaken to a post tropical low by late
tonight. See latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers
MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under
Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for additional details. 
  
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from near 12.5N109W to low pres near
10N125.5W 1007 mb to 05.5N132W, where it transitions to ITCZ,
continuing on to beyond 06N140W. Widely scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 79W
and 83W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 09N to 14N between 89W and 98W. Widely scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm s of the
trough between 109W and 122W.
 
...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N e of 120W:

A trough extends nnw to sse along the Baja California Peninsula
then continues ssw over the East Pacific waters to near 18N110W.
The trough is forecast to meander in this general position
through Thu night, and then weaken slightly Fri and Sat. A weak
e to w surface ridge extends across the open Pacific waters w of
the trough, from a 1017 mb high pres center near 26N132W. The
associated pressure gradient is expected to maintain moderate to
fresh nw flow across the open pacific waters ne and e of the
ridge axis, with afternoon heating across the baja peninsula
increasing winds to around 20 kt each afternoon and evening.
Inside the Gulf of California, fresh to locally strong southerly
flow is occurring across south and central sections, and will
diminish to fresh flow later this morning and afternoon, and is
then expected to persist through Fri. Seas across central
portions of the gulf will remain in the 4-5 ft range through
this afternoon then diminish very slightly through Fri.

S of 15N e of 120W: 

Light westerly wind flow generally prevails n of 10-11N and into
the Mexican coast, while moderate to fresh south to
southwesterly winds continue to the s of a weak low level trough
extending from near TD One-E to the monsoon trough. Little
change in this overall pattern is expected through Fri. 

W of 120W:

An elongated area of low pressure continues embedded along the
monsoon trough near 10N125.5W, while a second weaker low has
formed near 10N130.5W. Fresh to strong ne winds are currently
within 180 nm over the nw semicircle of low along 125.5W where
seas are running 7-8 ft. Winds surrounding the low at 130.5W are
generally around 15 kt or less. Both of these lows will shift
westward and weaken during the next 36 hours or so before
becoming absorbed within the monsoon trough. Active convection
continues to flare up at night with the eastern-most low and
could occur again Tue night.

The 1017 mb surface high at 26N132W is producing a weak pressure
gradient north of the monsoon trough and the two low pressure
centers, and generating moderate to fresh ne trades s of 20N,
accompanied by 4-6 ft seas. A weak cold front is moving slowly
se over the far nw waters from 32N137W to 27N140W. Moderate
southerly flow currently precedes the front across the waters
from 27N to 32N within 150 nm e of the front. The front is
expected to stall from 32N134W to 24N140W late Tue. Expect only
4-6 ft combined seas w of the front.

$$
Stripling