000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070242
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

.Tropical Depression One-E near 14.5N 95.9W at 0300 UTC Jun 07.
One-E is moving ne, or 045 deg, at 06 kt. The estimated minimum
surface pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt near the center. Elsewhere within 30 nm
of the center, except about 120 nm over the ne quadrant,
cyclonic winds of 20 to 30 kt are forecast with seas of 5-8 ft.
Numerous strong convection is currently observed within 180 nm
over the ne quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is se of the center within 980 nm either side of
a line from 11N97W to 14N92W. Expect this convection to continue
to move onshore Mexico with the possibility of localized
flooding, especially in areas of elevated terrain where
landslides may also occur. The depression is forecast to move
near 15.6N94.4W on Tue, and move inland as a remnant low near
15.5N 94.5W late Tue night. See latest NHC public advisory under
Awips/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC and the full forecast
advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for
additional details. 
  
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough forms near 11N101W and extends sw to 10N112W,
then turns nw through an embedded 1007 mb low pres at 10n124.5W,
with the monsoon trough then turning sw to 05N133W where
scatterometer winds indicate the ITCZ forms and continues w to
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted along the monsoon trough within 90 nm either side of a
line from 10N104W to 07N122W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed w of the low pres at 10N124.5W, roughly
within 60 nm of line from 07N124W to 10N126W to 12N122W.  

Isolated moderate to strong convection is observed within 120 nm
either side of a line from 05N81W to 11N91W.
 
...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N e of 120W:

a n to s orientated trough over the Baja California Peninsula
continues s over the East Pacific waters to a base near 15N113W.
The trough is forecast to meander in this general position
through Thu night, and then weaken some on Fri. An e to w
surface ridge extends e across the open Pacific waters w of the
trough. The associated pressure gradient is expected to maintain
moderate to fresh nw flow across the open pacific waters n of
the ridge axis and w of the trough through Tue, then mostly
moderate nw flow is expected. Fresh to locally strong southerly
flow will develop briefly across the southern Gulf of California
tonight.

S of 15N e of 120W: 

A n to s trough dips into the nw portion, generally to the n of
10N between 110W and 120W resulting in light to gentle cyclonic
winds in that area. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow is
expected across most of the area s of 10N through Fri. 

W of 120W:

A broad and elongated area of low pressure continues embedded
within the monsoon trough near 10N124.5W with strong ne flow
currently within 120 nm over the nw semicircle of the center.
This low is forecast to move w to near 11N127W on Tue, and near
11.5N127W on Wed, then gradually dissipate. Expect a small area
of strong ne winds within 90 nm over the nw quadrant on Tue,
then the gradient will relax.  

A 1017 mb surface high is analyzed at 28N132W. Except as
previously mentioned in association with the surface low at
10N124.5W, moderate to fresh ne trades dominate the East Pacific
between 20N and the ITCZ/monsoon trough, and are accompanied by
4-6 ft seas. A weak cold front is over the far nw waters from
32N137W to 27N140W. Moderate southerly flow currently precedes
the front across the waters from 27N to 32N within 150 nm e of
the front. The front is expected to stall from 32N134W to
24N140W late Tue. Only expect 4-6 ft combined seas w of the
front.

$$
Nelson