000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062147 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC MON JUN 06 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... .Tropical Depression One-E formed near 14.2N97.0W at 2100 UTC Jun 06, and is moving ne, or 045 deg, at 06 kt. The estimated minimum surface pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt near the center. Elsewhere within 30 nm of the center, except about 120 nm over the ne quadrant, cyclonic winds of 20 to 30 kt are forecast with seas of 5-8 ft. Numerous strong convection is currently observed within 210 nm over the ne quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 240 nm over the e semicircle of the center. Expect this convection to move n and onshore with the possibility of localized flooding, especially in areas of elevated terrain where landslides may also occur. The depression is forecast to move near 15.9N95.1W on Tue, and move inland near 16.5N 94.0W on Tue night. See latest NHC public advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC and the full forecast advisory under Awips/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for additional details. ..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Scatterometer winds indicate the monsoon trough forms near 11N120W and extends sw to an embedded 1011 mb low pressure at 10N123W, then continues sw to 05N130W to 06N134W where the ITCZ forms and continues w to beyond 06N140W. Numerous strong convection is observed within 210 nm over the sw semicircle of the low at 10N123W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm either side of a line from 05N80W to 09N88W to 14N92W, and within 90 nm of lines from 13N94W to 09N98W and from 08N105W to 07N120W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N e of 120W: A broad ridge extends e across the open Pacific waters w of 100W. The associated pressure gradient is expected to maintain moderate to fresh nw flow across the open pacific waters n of the ridge axis through Tue. Fresh to locally strong southerly flow will develop briefly across the southern Gulf of California tonight. S of 15N e of 120W: Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow is expected across most of the area s of 10N through Fri. W of 120W: A broad and elongated area of low pressure continues embedded within the monsoon trough near 10N123W with strong ne flow currently within 150 nm over the nw semicircle of the center. This low is forecast to move w to near 11N127W on Tue, and near 11.5N127W on Wed, then gradually dissipate. Expect a small area of strong ne winds within 90 nm over the nw quadrant on Tue, then the gradient will relax. A 1017 mb surface high is analyzed at 26N133W. Except as previously mentioned in association with the surface low at 10N123w, moderate to fresh ne trades dominate the East Pacific between 20N and the ITCZ/monsoon trough, and are accompanied by 4-6 ft seas. A weak cold front has moved into the nw waters from 32N137W to 27N140W. Fresh southerly flow currently precedes the front across the waters from 29N to 32N within 150 nm e of the front. These winds are expected to diminish to 10-15 kt in the next few hours. The front is expected to stall from 32N134W to 24N140W late Tue. Only expect 4-6 ft combined seas w of the front. $$ Nelson