000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061557
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 06 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 12N110W to low pressure located
near 10N122.5W to 06N129W. The ITCZ continues from 06N129W TO
06N135W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
on satellite imagery from 05N TO 07N between 78W and 80W...and N
of 12N to the coast of El Salvador between 87W AND 90W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

An area of low pressure located near 10N122.5W or about 1100
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce an area of showers and
thunderstorms. This convective activity is mainly to the west of
the low center from 08N to 11N between 122w and 125W.
Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur
while the system moves westward during the next day or two
before environmental conditions become less conducive.
This system has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over
the next 24 to 48 hours. Winds of 20 to 25 kt are expected
across the northwest portion of this low through Tuesday, where
seas will remain 6 to 8 ft.

An elongated area of low pressure located near 13.5N99W is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms from 13N to 15N
between 97W and 99W. Some development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days while it moves slowly
northeastward towards the coast of southern Mexico. A broad area
of fresh to strong southwesterly flow is to the SE of this low
pressure covering the waters from about 05N to 10N between 93W
and 102W. This wind flow continues to transport abundant
tropical moisture mainly across northern Central America. This
very moist and unstable weather pattern is expected to persist
across this region for the next 24 hours, and will leave
additional rain amounts over already wet soils. Further heavy
rains today may produce localized flooding, especially in areas
of elevated terrain where landslides may occur. This is a
typical weather pattern for the month of June.

A cold front has entered the NW corner of the forecast area and
now extends from 30N139W to 27N140W. Fresh to locally strong
winds are noted ahead of the front mainly N of 27N to a line
from 30N137W TO 27N139W. The front is forecast to reach a
position from 30N137W to 26N140W this evening. At that time...
winds are expected to diminish to 20 kt or less ahead of the
front.

A 1016 mb small area of high pressure centered near 27.5N131.5W
persists across the northwest waters this morning. The pressure
gradient between the associated ridge and a deepening trough
over the Gulf of California is producing fresh to strong NW
winds west of the Baja California peninsula roughly N of 25N E
of 116W.

Fresh to locally strong southerly flow is expected to briefly
develop inside the Gulf of California tonight and persist
through late Tuesday. Resultant seas will build to 5 to 6 ft.
Wave heights across the Pacific waters west of the Baja
peninsula are ranging 6 to 7 ft based on the most recent
altimeter pass. These wave heights will gradually diminish to 4
to 6 ft through late Tuesday.
  
The aforementioned 1016 mb surface high continues to produce a
modest pressure gradient to the south, and is maintaining
moderate to locally fresh NE trades between 18N and the
ITCZ/monsoon trough where seas are 4 to 5 ft. 

$$
GR