000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061012 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC MON JUN 06 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12.5N110W to low pressure near 10.5N122W to 06.5N127W. The ITCZ extends from 06N128W to 06N138W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N east of 80W to coastal Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 99W and 98W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm across the northwest quadrant of 1007 mb low pressure area near 13N99W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm across the west semicircle of 1007 mb low pressure along the monsoon trough near 10.5N122W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N, east of 120W: A small area of high pressure persists across the northwest waters early this morning, centered near 28N132.5W at 1018 mb, and extends southeast to near 10N121W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a deepening trough over the Gulf of California over the next couple of days will produce moderate to fresh northwesterly winds off the Baja California peninsula for the next few days, while southerly flow develops inside the Gulf of California this afternoon and persists throughout the week. These southerly winds are expected to increase to around 20 kt across southern portions of the Gulf late tonight and shift slowly northward into central portions and briefly increase to 20-25 kt Tuesday afternoon, where seas will build 5-6 ft. Wave heights across the Pacific waters off of the peninsula are running 5-7 ft early this morning and will gradually diminish to 4-6 ft through late Tuesday. South of 15N, east of 120W: The broad elongated cyclonic circulation spanning from Central America into the southern Gulf of Mexico has shifted north northeastward during the past 24 hours, and Tropical Storm Colin has formed across the south central Gulf within this large circulation. A trailing low level trough continues early this morning from the Yucatan Peninsula SW across southeastern Mexico and Guatemala to low pressure near 13N99W. A broad area of strong southwesterly flow has developed from about 06N to 11N between 92W and 102W and continues to transport abundant tropical moisture into Central America. Winds at the surface there are around 20 kt with a few areas 20-25 kt, and seas have built 7-9 ft overnight. This low is expected to track northeast and move to along the Mexican coast between Puerto Angel and the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the next 48 hours, and possibly move inland. As mentioned above, considerable convection is observed across the Pacific waters south of Central America and into extreme southeast Mexico, which is also streaming northeastward across Central America and into the northwest Caribbean. Strong thunderstorms has also affected the western slopes of the Sierra Madre Occidentales overnight between Guadalajara and the Tehuantepec region. This very wet and active weather pattern is expected to persist across this region for the next 24 hours and will leave additional rain amounts across already wet soils. Further heavy rains today may produce localized flooding, especially in areas of elevated terrain where landslides may occur. West of 120W: As previously mentioned, a low pressure center continues embedded along the monsoon trough near 1.5N122W. Although sea surface temperatures are warm, atmospheric conditions are expected to gradually become less favorable for improved organization during the next few days, as the low moves south of an upper anticyclone and experiences increasing northeasterly wind shear. Winds of 20-25 kt are expected across northwest portions of this low through Tuesday, where seas will remain 6-8 ft. The 1018 mb surface high at 28N132.5W continues to produce a modest pressure gradient to the south and is maintaining moderate to locally fresh ne trades between 20N and the ITCZ/monsoon trough, where seas are 4-6 ft. A weak cold front will move into the far northwest waters near 30N140W early today with fresh to strong southerly flow ahead of the front through this afternoon, then winds will diminish to a moderate s-sw-w wind shift along the front extending from 32N138w to 26N140W this evening. The front is expected to stall from 32N134W to 24N140W on Tuesday. $$ Stripling