000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060242 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC MON JUN 06 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N108W to low pressure near 10N121W to 05N130W to 05N133W. ITCZ from 05N133W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm in the northern quadrant of 1007 mb a low pressure area centered near 12N104W. There is also scattered moderate convection noted within 240 nm in the southwest quadrant of this low pressure area. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm in the southwest quadrant of a 1007 mb low pressure along the monsoon trough near 10N121W. ...DISCUSSION... North of 15N, east of 120W: The interaction of ridging across the eastern Pacific and a deepening trough over the Gulf of California over the next couple of days will allow winds to increase off the Baja California peninsula tonight into Monday, and later as southerly flow in the central Gulf of California by Tuesday. Wave heights will remain below 8 ft, and winds will diminish to 20 kt or less by late Tuesday as trough weakens. South of 15N, east of 120W: A tropical storm has formed north of the area in the south central Gulf of Mexico and is trailing a broad low level trough sw across southeastern Mexico to near the newly formed surface low near 12N104W. Strong southwesterly flow has developed within 360 nm southeast of the low with 4-7 ft seas in southerly swell. This low is expected to track northeast moving inland Mexico near the Isthmus of Tehuantepec on Tuesday morning, but still trailing a trough sw across the East Pacific waters. As previously mentioned, considerable convection is observed across the Pacific waters south of Central America and extreme southeast Mexico. The southerly flow will advect this convection inland with the possibility of localized flooding, especially in areas of elevated terrain where landslides may occur. West of 120W: As previously mentioned, a broad and elongated area of low pressure continues embedded within the monsoon trough near 10N120.5W. Although sea surface temperatures are warm, atmospheric conditions are becoming less favorable as the lowmoves south of an upper anticyclone and experiences increasing northeasterly wind shear. The forecast is for the low to reach near 11N123W on Monday, and near 11N125W on Tuesday. A 1018 mb surface high is analyzed at 28N134W. Except as previously mentioned in association with the surface low at 10N121W, moderate to fresh ne trades dominate the East Pacific between 20N and the ITCZ/monsoon trough, and are accompanied by 4-6 ft seas. A weak cold front will move into the far northwest waters near 30N140W early Monday. Fresh to strong southerly flow will precede the front through early Monday, then winds will diminish to a moderate s-sw-w wind shift along the front extending from 32N138w to 26N140W late Monday. The front is expected to stall from 32N134W to 24N140W on Tuesday. $$ Christensen