000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052101
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC SUN JUN 05 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends w from a newly formed 1007 mb surface
low at 11.5N100.5W to 11.5N115.5W, then turns sw through another
1007 mb surface low embedded in the monsoon trough near 10N120W.
The monsoon trough continues sw to 05N130W where scatterometer
winds indicate an ITCZ forms, and continues w to beyond 05N140W. 

Scattered strong convection has flared w of the surface low at 
11.5N100.5W within 60 nm either side of a line from 10N101W to
11.5N101.5W to 14N100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong has
also flared ne of the low within 45 nm of 13N97W.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection has flared again
near the surface low at 10.5N120.5W within 90 nm over the ne
quadrant and also within 210 nm over the w semicircle of the
low. 

Scattered moderate isolated strong is observed along the Pacific
coast of colombia within 45 nm of 04.5N78W, to the n of a line
from 07N82W to 07N99W and mainly to the s of the monsoon trough
within 90 nm either side of a line from 09N101W to 09N110W to
07N118W.  

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N e of 120W:

A nnw to sse surface trough is expected to develop each
afternoon during peak heating this week over the Baja California
Peninsula, and then drift e over the northern Gulf of California
during the evening hours. A 1002 mb surface low is forecast to
develop over the northern Gulf of California on Mon, and persist
for a few days. A broad ridge extends e across the open Pacific
waters w of 100W. The associated pressure gradient is expected
to maintain moderate to fresh nw flow across the open pacific
waters n of the ridge axis, except a strong breeze expected n of
25N along the Pacific coast of the Baja Peninsula into this
evening. Guidance is persistent with fresh to locally strong
southerly flow developing across the southern Gulf of California
early Tue, with these conditions diminishing by Tue evening.

S of 15N e of 120W: 

A tropical depression has formed n of the area near the Yucatan
Peninsula and is trailing a broad low level trough sw across
southeastern Mexico to near the newly formed surface low near
11.5N100.5W. Strong southwesterly flow has developed within 240
nm se of the low with moderate to fresh southwesterly flow
observed to the w of 85W and south of the monsoon trough with 4-
7 ft seas in southerly swell. This low is expected to track ne
moving inland Mexico near the Isthmus of Tehuantepec on Tue
morning, and then passing ne across the Yucatan Peninsula on
Wed, but still trailing a trough sw across the East Pacific
waters. As previously mentioned, considerable convection is
observed across the Pacific waters s of Central America and
extreme Se Mexico. The southerly flow will advect this
convection inland with the possibility of localized flooding,
especially in areas of elevated terrain where landslides may
occur.

As previously mentioned, a broad and elongated area of low
pressure continues embedded within the monsoon trough near
10.5N120.5W. Although sea surface temperatures are warm,
atmospheric conditions are becoming less favorable as the low
moves s of an upper anticyclone and experiences increasing
northeasterly wind shear. The forecast is for the low to reach
near 11N123W on Mon, and near 11N125W on Tue.
   
W of 120W:
   
A 1019 mb surface high is analyzed at 26N134W. Except as
previously mentioned in association with the surface low at
10.5N120.5W, moderate to fresh ne trades dominate the East
Pacific between 20N and the ITCZ/monsoon trough, and are
accompanied by 4-6 ft seas. A weak cold front will move into the
far nw waters near 30N140W early Mon. Fresh to strong southerly
flow will precede the front through early Mon, then winds will
diminish to a moderate s-sw-w wind shift along the front
extending from 32N138w to 26N140W late Mon. The front is
expected to stall from 32N134W to 24N140W on Tue. 

$$
Nelson