000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050243
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC SUN JUN 05 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A broad and elongated area of low pressure continues to be
embedded along the monsoon trough near 11N120W, with an
estimated pressure of 1007 mb. Showers and thunderstorms have
diminished over the past couple of hours since an earlier burst
of intensity. Winds are presumed to still be 20 to 25 kt within
180 nm to the north of the center, with seas to 8 ft. The system
remains very disorganized with several cyclonic circulations
appearing intermittently over a large area. Atmospheric
conditions remain favorable for increased organization and thus
a medium chance of tropical cyclone development over the next
couple of days. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook
under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for additional
details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough reaches from low pressure near 12N100W 1007
mb to low pressure near 11N120W 1007 mb to 08N125W to 08N135W.
ITCZ extends from 08N135W to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection is noted within 135 nm and 60 nm n
of monsoon trough between 100w and 108w. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 150 nm in the northwest semicircle
of the low pressure centered near 11N120W. 
  
...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N and east of 120W:

A weak surface ridge extends from 1018 mb high pres 25N130W to
25N125W then southeast through Socorro Island. This is
maintaining a generally light to gentle breezes across the
region. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in open Pacific Waters and 2 to 4 ft
in the Gulf of California. The northwest flow will start to
increase of the central Baja California Peninsula between the
high pressure west of the area and a deepening trough reaching
from the northern Gulf of California to Socorro Island by late
Monday. Looking ahead to Tuesday, this pattern will also allow
southeast winds with 4 to 6 ft seas across the southern Gulf of
California. 
  
South of 15N and east of 110W: 

A weak surface low pressure area is analyzed near 12N100W along
the monsoon trough. This is related to a broad upper trough
extend over central Mexico. A large area of showers and
thunderstorms are noted along the monsoon trough to the west of
the low pressure area. The low pressure may deepen over the next
couple of days with fresh to strong southwest winds converging
into the southern half low pressure area Sunday into Monday and
seas building to 8 ft. The low pressure will weaken Monday into
Tuesday as it drifts into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Meanwhile
moist onshore flow will persist into northern Central America
and southern Mexico into Monday.
    
Elsewhere from the equator to 32N east of 140W:
   
A 1018 mb surface high is analyzed at 25N130W. Except as
previously mentioned in association with the surface low at
10N119W...moderate ne trades cover the eastern Pacific between
20N and the ITCZ/monsoon trough and are accompanied by 5-6 ft
seas. A weak cold front will move into the far nw waters near
30N140W early Monday, and stall from 32N128W to 22N140W on
Wednesday night.

$$
Christensen