000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042145
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC SAT JUN 04 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A broad and elongated area of low pressure continues to be
embedded along the monsoon trough near 10N120W, with an
estimated pressure of 1007 mb. Strong northeast winds were
observed in a 17 UTC scatterometer pass within 180 nm in the
northwest quadrant of the center. Concurrent altimeter data
indicated seas 6 to 8 ft expected to expand outward to about 270
nm. Scattered strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the
northwest semicircle of the center. The system remains very
disorganized with several cyclonic circulations appearing
intermittently over a large area. Atmospheric conditions remain
favorable for increased organization and thus a medium chance of
tropical cyclone development over the next couple of days.
Please refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO
headers TWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for additional details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough reaches from a 1010 mb low center near 12N99W
to 13N115W to the 1007 mb low pres near 10N120W TO 08N135W. The
ITCZ reaches from 08N135W to 09N140W. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is noted within 360 nm to the south
of the 1010 mb low pres centered near 12N99W. Elsewhere
scattered moderate convection is also noted within 135 nm south
of monsoon trough axis between 103w and 113w.
  
...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N and east of 120W:

A weak surface ridge extends from 1018 mb high pres 25N130W to
25N125W then southeast through the Revillagigedo Islands. This
is maintain generally light to gentle breezes across the region.
Seas are 4 to 6 ft in open Pacific Waters and 2 to 4 ft in the
Gulf of California. The northwest flow will start to increase of
the central Baja California Peninsula between the high pressure
west of the area and a deepening trough reaching from the
northern Gulf of California to Socorro Island by late Monday.
Looking ahead to Tuesday, this pattern will also allow southeast
winds with 4 to 6 ft seas across the southern Gulf of
California. 
  
South of 15N and east of 110W: 

A weak surface low pressure area is analyzed near 12N99W along
the monsoon trough. This is related to a broad upper trough
extend over central Mexico. A large area of showers and
thunderstorms are noted within 360 nm south of the low pressure
area. The low pressure may deepen over the next couple of days
with fresh to strong southwest winds converging into the
southern half low pressure area Sunday into Monday and seas
building to 8 ft. The low pressure will weaken Monday into
Tuesday as it drifts into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Meanwhile
moist onshore flow will persist into northern Central America
and southern Mexico into Monday.
    
Elsewhere from the equator to 32N east of 140W:
   
A 1018 mb surface high is analyzed at 25N130W. Except as
previously mentioned in association with the surface low at
10N119W...moderate ne trades cover the eastern Pacific between
20N and the ITCZ/monsoon trough and are accompanied by 5-6 ft
seas. A weak cold front will move into the far nw waters near
30N140W early Monday, and stall from 32N128W to 22N140W on
Wednesday night.

$$
Christensen