000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041551 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC SAT JUN 04 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A broad and elongated area of low pressure continues embedded along the monsoon trough and is analyzed as a 1007 mb surface low at 10N119W. Strong ne winds are observed within 180 nm nw of the center with seas of 6-8 ft with these conditions expected to expand outward to about 270 nm. Currently scattered strong convection is noted within 150 nm over the nw semicircle, while scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed along an outer band within 60 nm either side of a line from 08N120W to 10N123W to 14N122W to 15N121W. Although very convective, the system remains very disorganized with several cyclonic circulations appearing intermittently over a large area. Atmospheric conditions remain favorable for increased organization and thus a medium chance of tropical cyclone development over the next couple of days. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for additional details. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A tropical wave is moving nw around the Atlantic sub-tropical ridge at 10-15 kt across Honduras and El Salvador. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is currently noted within 120 nm of the coast of Central America and Mexico from 13n to 21N. A tropical wave is analyzed from 03.5N78W to 11N76W and is accompanied by locally broke low clouds and light showers. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough was analyzed from 15N97W to an embedded 1007 mb low pres at 10N119W with the monsoon trough continuing sw to 09N125W then turning nw 09N133W then sw to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within 90 nm either side of a line from 05N98W to 13N98W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 240 nm either side of a line from 07N92W to 13N112W and also within 180 nm of 08N131W. ...DISCUSSION... N of 15N e of 120W: A NNW-SSE surface trough is expected to develop during the afternoon peak heating over the Baja California Peninsula through early this week. A nw to se orientated surface ridge extends from 23N120W to beyond 15N107W. The pressure gradient is expected to support moderate-fresh nw flow across the open pacific waters n of the ridge for the next few days, except increasing briefly to strong along the Pacific coast of the Baja Peninsula from 25N to 27N. Guidance continues to suggest that the Baja trough will deepen on Tue with fresh to locally strong southerly flow developing across the southern gulf of California. S of 15N e of 110W: Moderate-fresh southwesterly flow is expected w of 85W and south of the monsoon trough through Mon night with 4-7 ft seas in southerly swell. Generally expect light-moderate sw-w flow across the waters e of 85W. A surface low is forecast to develop over the nw Caribbean along the tropical wave, and move nw across the Yucatan Peninsula on Sun, then continue n resulting in continued fresh southerly monsoonal flow across the East Pacific waters s of the monsoon trough on through late Mon. Elsewhere from the equator to 32N e of 140W: A 1018 mb surface high is analyzed at 23N129W. Except as previously mentioned in association with the surface low at 10N119W...moderate ne trades cover the eastern Pacific between 20N and the ITCZ/monsoon trough and are accompanied by 5-6 ft seas. A weak cold front will move into the far nw waters near 30N140W early Mon, and stall from 32N128W to 22N140W on Wed night all the while accompanied by only a light-moderate sw-w-nw wind shift with post-frontal nw swell only building combined seas to 5 ft. $$ Nelson