000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031551
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC FRI JUN 03 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A broad area of low pressure is analyzed as a 1007 mb surface
low embedded in the monsoon trough near 09N115W. Currently
scattered moderate isolated strong convection has flared within
60 nm of 12N114W and 08N113W and within 240 nm over the w
semicircle of the center. The system appears to be elongated
from ne to sw with several cyclonic circulations currently
noted. Atmospheric conditions remain favorable for gradual
development, and there is a medium chance of tropical cyclone
development over the next couple of days. Please refer to the
Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOEP/ABPZ20
for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVE... 

A tropical wave is moving west at 10-15 kt across the sw
Caribbean and extends s across western Panama. There is
currently little enhancement of convection across the Pacific
along the wave axis. The wave is expected to lose identity in
larger scale circulation developing across the east Pacific.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough was analyzed from 11N86W to a weak embedded
1010 mb surface low at 11N91W. The monsoon trough continues nw
to 13N96W to 13N109W, then dips sw through a second 1007 mb
embedded low pres at 10N115W and continues sw to 07N125W where
scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ forms, and continues sw to
beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted within 120 nm either side of a line from 08N97W to 
12N103W to 05N122W, and within 30 nm either side of a line from 
07N126W to 08N134W to 06N140W. The surface low near 11N91w is
forecast to dissipate tonight.
  
...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N e of 120W:

A NNW-SSE surface trough is expected to persist over the Baja
California Peninsula through the upcoming weekend. A surface
ridge extends from 23N120W to 15N101W. Across the waters n of
the ridge the gradient is expected to support moderate nw flow,
except increasing to a fresh breeze during the late afternoons
through most of the night hours with seas building to about 7
ft. Note that guidance seems to have become a little less
aggressive with the strength of the flow. The Baja trough is
forecast to deepen on Tue with fresh to locally strong southerly
flow developing across the southern gulf of California.
  
S of 15N e of 110W:

Light to moderate southwest flow will persist over the area
south of the monsoon trough through tonight with 4-6 ft seas in
southerly swell. A surface low is forecast to develop n of the
area over Central America and move across the Yucatan Peninsula 
late this weekend, and continue n resulting in the southerly
monsoonal flow increasing to a fresh breeze across the Pacific
waters s of the monsoon trough on Sat night through Sun, with 
embedded patches of strong winds near 10N100W on Mon.
    
Elsewhere from the equator to 32N e of 140W:
   
A surface ridge axis extends 32N140W to beyond 23N120W. Moderate
ne trades cover the eastern Pacific between 20N and the ITCZ and
monsoon trough and are accompanied by 5-6 ft seas. A surface
high will begin to develop intermittently along the ridge near
24N134W on Sat.
 
$$
Nelson