000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030953
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC FRI JUN 03 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A broad area of low pressure is located near 10N115.5W with an
estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. Convection near the low
has decreased considerably during the night with a few clusters
of strong convection recently developing within 120 nm across
the south semicircle of the center. This system remains fairly
broad and elongated from east-north to west-southwest with
several weaker closed circulations evident at both the surface
and in the mid levels of the atmosphere. A 0000 UTC Rapidscat
pass depicted areas of southwest winds 20-25 kt within 360 nm
across the southeast quadrant of the low. Atmospheric conditions
remain favorable for gradual improved organization of this
system, and there is a medium chance of tropical cyclone
development over the next couple of days. Please refer to the
Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOEP/ABPZ20
for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave moving west at 10 to 15 kt across the western
Caribbean and Panama extends southwest into the far eastern
waters of the Tropical Eastern Pacific along 82W. No significant
convection is noted across the Pacific waters near this tropical
wave currently, although very active convection follows the wave
across the Caribbean. The wave is expected to become part of a
broader cyclonic circulation forming over northern Central
America in the next two to three days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13.5N99W to 1007 mb low pressure
near 10N115.5W to 07N128W. The ITCZ continues from 07N128W to
08n135w to beyond 06N140W. Widely scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 96W and 105W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 210 NM
south of the trough between 111W and 121W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 90 nm either side if the ITCZ west of
127W.

...DISCUSSION... 

North of 15N, east of 120W - a broad surface ridge extends
across the northeast waters has collapsed overnight, with its
remnants combining with low pressure across Mexico to produce
moderate northwesterly winds along the Baja California coastal
waters. Elsewhere generally light to moderate wind flow prevails
across the region north of the monsoon trough. Recent ship
observations and altimeter data indicate wave heights 4 to 6 ft
in open waters. Northwest winds will increase starting Saturday
off the central coast of the Baja California peninsula between
the high pressure and a deepening trough over the Gulf of
California, then increase Sunday afternoon to 20-25 kt within
120 nm of the coast. Wave heights will briefly build to near 8
ft Sunday afternoon and evening accordingly. 

South of 15N, east of 120W - Light to moderate southwest flow
will persist over the area south of the monsoon trough through
Friday with 5 to 6 ft seas in southerly swell. The pattern will
change starting Saturday as an upper trough centered well north
of the area over Texas into north central Mexico will assist in
the development of lower to mid level low pressure over northern
Central America over the next several days. This in turn will
allow persistent southwest flow in the lower to mid levels,
bringing copious moisture and heavy rainfall to Central America
by late Saturday. Fresh southwest winds will converge into the
monsoon trough over the waters north of 04N between 85W and 105W
with seas increasing to near 8 ft by late Sunday.

Elsewhere west of 120W - A surface ridge axis extends from a
1024 mb high north of our area near 39N131W to 32N122W.
Generally moderate trades cover the eastern Pacific between 20N
and the ITCZ and monsoon trough. These trades support 5 to 6 ft
seas over the majority of this portion of the basin. The high
will shift farther north and away from the region over the
weekend but with a weak ridge building south across western
portions of the area. This will maintain moderate northeast to
east tradewinds south of 20N through the weekend. 

$$
Stripling