000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030218
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC FRI JUN 03 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A broad area of low pressure is located near 09N113W with an
estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 180 nm in the northern quadrant of
the center. This system remains fairly broad and elongated from
east to west with several weaker closed circulations evident at
both the surface and in the mid levels of the atmosphere.
Further organization is a anticipated and there is a high chance
of tropical cyclone development over the next couple of days.
Please refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO
headers TWOEP/ABPZ20 for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving west at 10 to 15 kt across eastern
Panama and off the Pacific coast of Colombia. No significant
convection is noted near this tropical wave currently, although
the tropical wave will enhance nocturnal convection off the
coast of Colombia in the early morning. The wave is expected to
become part of a broader circulation forming over northern
Central America in the next two to three days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N99W to 1007 mb low pressure
near 09N113W to 07N130W. The ITCZ axis continues from 07N130W to
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N
to 10N between 94W and 98W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 180 NM south of the monsoon trough between 100W and
105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm in
the northwest quadrant of the low pressure near 13N113W.

...DISCUSSION... 

North of 15N, east of 120W - a broad surface ridge extends from
30N125W through the Revillagigedo Islands. This is maintaining
generally light to moderate flow across the region. Recent ship
observations and altimeter data indicate wave heights 4 to 6 ft
in open waters. Northwest winds will increase starting Saturday
off the central coast of the Baja California peninsula between
the high pressure and a deepening trough over the Gulf of
California. Wave heights will build to near 8 ft accordingly. 

South of 15N, east of 120W - Light to moderate southwest flow
will persist over the area south of the monsoon trough through
Friday with 5 to 6 ft seas in southerly swell. The pattern will
change starting Saturday as an upper trough centered well north
of the area over Texas into north central Mexico will assist in
the development of lower to mid level low pressure over northern
Central America over the next several days. This in turn will
allow persistent southwest flow in the lower to mid levels,
bringing copious moisture and heavy rainfall to Central America
by late Saturday. Fresh southwest winds will converge into the
monsoon trough over the waters north of 04N between 85W and 105W
with seas increasing to near 8 ft by late Sunday.

Elsewhere west of 120W - A surface ridge axis extends from a
1021 mb high north of our area near 36N136W to 24N120W to
19N109W. Generally moderate trades cover the eastern Pacific n
of the ITCZ, special feature low, and monsoon trough. These
trades support 5 to 6 ft seas over the majority of this portion
of the basin. 

$$
Christensen