000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC THU JUN 02 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A broad area of low pressure is located near 09N113W with an
estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. Scattered to numerous
moderate convection is noted within 180 nm in the northern
semicircle of the center of the low pressure. This system
remains fairly broad and elongated from west to east with
several weaker closed circulations evident at both the surface
and in the mid levels of the atmosphere. A tropical wave that
was approaching the complex low pressure from the east has
merged into low. Further organization is a anticipated and there
remains a high chance of tropical cyclone development over the
next couple of days. Please refer to the Tropical Weather
Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOEP/ABPZ20 for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving west at 10 to 15 kt through 95W/96W
north of 08N. Convection is noted where the tropical wave
intersects the monsoon trough, from 09N to 11N between 94W and
96W. Model diagnostics show the easterly flow sustaining the
tropical wave starting to diminish tomorrow as deep layer
ridging north of the area weakens and shifts west. This will
allow the tropical wave to lose definition and the attendant
convection to diminish.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 13N100W to 1007 mb low
pressure near 09N113W to 07N125W. The ITCZ axis continues from
07N125W to beyond 06N140W. Other than convection associated with
the special feature 1007 mb low near 09N113W, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 94W and 96W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

North of 15N, east of 120W - a broad surface ridge extends from
1018 mb high pressure centered near 26N127W through the
Revillagigedo Islands. This is maintaining generally light to
moderate flow across the region. Recent ship observations and
altimeter data indicate wave heights 4 to 6 ft in open waters.
Northwest winds will increase starting Saturday off the central
coast of the Baja California peninsula between the high pressure
and a deepening trough over the Gulf of California. Wave heights
will build to near 8 ft accordingly. 

South of 15N, east of 120W - Light to moderate southwest flow
will persist over the area south of the monsoon trough through
Friday with 5 to 6 ft seas in southerly swell. The pattern will
change starting Saturday as an upper trough centered well north
of the area over Texas into north central Mexico will assist in
the development of lower to mid level low pressure over northern
Central America over the next several days. This in turn will
allow persistent southwest flow in the lower to mid levels,
bringing copious moisture and heavy rainfall to Central America
by late Saturday. Fresh southwest winds will converge into the
monsoon trough over the waters north of 04N between 85W and 105W
with seas increasing to near 8 ft by late Sunday.

Elsewhere west of 120W - A surface ridge axis extends from a
1021 mb high north of our area near 36N136W to 24N120W to
19N109W. Generally moderate trades cover the eastern Pacific n
of the Itcz, special feature low, and monsoon trough. These
trades support 5 to 6 ft seas over the majority of this portion
of the basin. 

$$
Christensen