000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021537
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC THU JUN 02 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad area of low pressure is located near 09N113W with an
estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. Scattered to numerous
moderate convection is from 05N to 14N between 106W and 118W.
The latest position of this system was confirmed by nighttime
infrared satellite imagery, and closely matches cyclonic winds
in a 0420 UTC scatterometer pass. A tropical wave previously
analyzed just east of this low is beginning to merge with the
low this morning. The chance for this system to become a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high. Please refer
to the Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers
TWOEP/ABPZ20 for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis that extends from 15N95W to 07N95W,
moving w at around 15 kt. Broad 700 mb troughing is evident
between 88W and 100W south of 12N. Scattered moderate convection
is from 05N to 16N between 92W and 97W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N81W to 14N97W to 1007 mb low
pres near 09N113W to 07N125W. The ITCZ axis continues from
07N125W to beyond 06N140W. Other than convection associated with
the special feature 1007 mb low near 09N113W, scattered moderate
convection is within 450 nm s of the monsoon trough e of 97W,
within 120 nm of the monsoon trough between 91W and 106W, and
within 120 nm of either side of the itcz between 125W and 137W.

...DISCUSSION... 

An upper level trough extends from sw Texas to the southern Baja
California to the eastern Pacific near 18N110W. This upper
trough is forecast to move slowly eastward over the next three
to four days and will support an enhancement of precipitation
along the monsoon trough and areas northward e of 100W through
the weekend. Heavy rainfall will be possible during this time
period over central America and southern Mexico with flooding
and mudslides possible in the prone areas. 

A surface ridge axis extends from a 1021 mb high north of our
area near 36N136W to 24N120W to 19N109W. Generally moderate
trades cover the eastern Pacific n of the Itcz, special feature
low, and monsoon trough. These trades support 5 to 6 ft seas
over the majority of this portion of the basin. 

Enhanced southwesterly flow continues from the special features
low near 09N113W eastward to 105W, within a few hundred miles
south of the monsoon trough axis. Winds have diminished east of
the special feature low to 20 kt or less. However, swell to 8 ft
remains over this area as confirmed by recent altimeter data.
This swell is expected to linger until at least this evening.  

$$
LATTO