000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020947 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU JUN 02 2016 Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad and complex area of low pressure is located near 09N114W with an estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. Convective precipitation: the precipitation pattern that immediately surrounds the 1007 mb low pressure center has become weaker and weaker during the last six hours. Isolated moderate is within 210 nm of the northern quadrant of the low center between 112W and 115W. Other convective precipitation that is comparatively farther away from the 1007 mb low pressure center: Numerous strong from 09N to 12N between 106W and 109W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N to 09N between 105W and 111W. The chance for this system to become a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOEP/ABPZ20 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 94W/95W from 15N southward. The wave is moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Numerous strong along the Mexico coast from 15N to 17N between 93W and 95W, in the eastern part of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A tropical wave is along 15N107W 10N108W 06N108W, moving west 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: Numerous strong is within 120 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 105W and 110W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the area from 120 nm to the south of the monsoon trough to 270 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 105W and 111W. This precipitation also is to the east of the 1007 mb low pressure center that is near 09N114W, that is a special feature. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through Costa Rica near 10N86W, and it continues to 13N100W, to the 1007 mb low pressure center that is near 09N114W. The monsoon trough continues to 07N122W. The ITCZ continues from 07N122W to 07N123W, 08N131W and beyond 05N140W. Convective precipitation: Numerous strong within 120 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 127W and 130W, and within 150 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 131W and 134W. Numerous strong along the Mexico coast from 15N to 17N between 97W and 99W. Scattered strong from 12N to 13N between 87W and 89W near the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras in the Gulf of Fonseca, and El Salvador. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is along the coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua from 10N to 11N between 86W and 87W. Scattered moderate to strong from 03N to 07N between 78W and 84W. ...DISCUSSION... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N134W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is along the border of Texas and Mexico near 29N104w. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Eastern Pacific Ocean to the north of the line that passes through 11N140W to 25N123W, and from 25N123W to 20N110W and beyond 20N105W. No major changes are anticipated until Saturday afternoon. An upper level trough is forecast to move across Mexico into the eastern Pacific Ocean, starting on Saturday afternoon and continuing for the next few days after that. The trough will enhance a surface trough that is in the region, and allow wind speeds to range from 20 knots to 25 knots and sea heights to range from 8 feet to 10 feet, from 06N to 10N between 90W and 100W. The wind speeds are 20 knots or less across much of the open waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean. The comparatively fastest wind speeds and the comparatively highest sea heights accompany the 1007 mb low pressure center that is the subject of the Special Features section. The sea heights are at or near 8 feet, from 10N to 12N between 100W and 105W, due in part to decaying southerly swell. The winds and seas will diminish through Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain active along coastal areas during the early morning hours of today. $$ mt