000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC WED JUN 01 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad and complex area of low pressure is located near 09N114W
with an estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. Clusters of
moderate convection are noted within 120 nm of the center of the
low pressure. There is a medium chance for this system to become
a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. Please refer to the
Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOEP/ABPZ20
for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave located near 91W from 06N to 13N is moving west
at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 90W and 95W. 

A tropical wave near 104W from 07N to 14N moving west at 10 to
15 knots shows weak cyclonic turning in the lower to mid levels
of the atmosphere. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 13N97W to a 1007 mb
low near 09N114W. ITCZ from 08N120W to beyond 04N140W. Numerous
moderate from 04N to 14N east of 91W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 08N to 11N between 89W and 95W. Scattered
moderate within 120 nm south semicircle of the low pressure near
09N114W.

...DISCUSSION... 

North of 15N and east of 120W - ship observations and recent
scatterometer data show light to moderate northwest winds across
the region between high pres centered west of the area and
troughing over northern Mexico. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft. No
major changes are anticipated until Saturday when an upper
trough will slide across Baja California Norte enhancing a
surface trough over the region, allowing winds to 20 to 25 kt
off central coast of the Baja Peninsula. 

South of 15N east of 120W - fresh southwest winds converging
into the monsoon trough are supporting clusters of showers and
thunderstorms along and south of the trough axis. Seas are at or
near 8 ft as well due in part to decaying southerly swell. The
winds and seas will diminish through Thursday. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will remain active along coastal areas
overnight. 

West of 120W - An upper low is centered near 28N134W with a
surface trough just to the west of 140W outside the discussion
area. This feature is weakening and only a few showers are noted
just to the east of the upper trough axis. Winds have diminished
to less than 20 kt with seas less than 8 ft.

$$
Christensen