000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011753
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC WED JUN 01 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad and complex area of low pressure with a pair of 1007 mb
centers are located near 09N114W and 09N112W. Clusters of
moderate and isolated strong convection are from 04N to 13N
between 110W and 119W. There is a medium chance for this system
to become a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. Please
refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers
TWOEP/ABPZ20 for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis from 14N89W to 05N89W, moving
westward at 10 to 15 knots. Inverted troughing is evident at 700
mb between 87W and 91W. Numerous moderate convection is from 05N
to 14N between 85W and 92W. 

A tropical wave has an axis from 15N101W to 05N102W, moving
westward at 10 to 15 knots. Subtle 700 mb troughing is evident
between 99W and 103W with a maximum in 850 mb vorticity near
10N102W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 15N
between 100W and 106W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 13N97W to a 1007 mb
low near 09N112W to another 1007 mb low near 09N114W to 08N126W.
the itcz begins near 08N126W and extends to beyond 06N140W.
Other than convection discussed above in the special features
and tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm of the itcz/monsoon trough axis between 119W and
135W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

A surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1021 mb high center
north of our area to near 27N128W to 20N110W. Generally moderate
trade winds are being generated by this ridge with seas ranging
from 6 to 7 ft across the region north of 10N. The ridge will
weaken slightly over the next few days as a weak trough of low
pressure develops west of Baja California. The result will be a
slight decrease in trade winds N of 15N and seas lowering to 5
to 6 ft over our northern waters through the end of the week. 

An upper low is centered near 29N138W with a surface trough just
west of this low and our area of discussion. This upper low
appears to be generating showers and isolated thunderstorms west
of a line from 29N134W to 22N140W. The upper low will drift ne
through Sat while continuing to support scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms. 

An increase in southwesterly winds has been noted to the south
of the monsoon trough axis north of the equator. This surface is
forecast to diminish over the next couple of days. Currently the
broad area of 20 kt winds is supporting seas to 9 ft from north
of 05N, south of the monsoon trough. In addition to this broad
area of enhanced southwesterly flow, a complex area of low
pressure is developing along the monsoon trough axis near
09N114W. The combination of convection associated with the
southern periphery of the low and enhanced southwesterlies over
the region supports locally fresh to strong southwest winds over
the southwestern semicircle of the low center. Please refer to
the special features section for more details on this low. 

$$
Latto