000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010959
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC WED JUN 01 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

One low pressure center is along 111W in the monsoon trough.
A second low pressure center is along 115W/116W, also in the
monsoon trough. The two low pressure centers will merge
gradually, and then deepen through Wednesday, crossing 120W by
late Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development of this system during the next several
days. The chance of formation of the broad area of surface low
pressure, into a tropical cyclone, is medium. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 15N86W 10N87W 04N88W, moving westward
10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 06N to 08N between 78W and 83W, and from
05N to 13N between 83W and 90W.

A tropical wave is along 14N100W 11N101W 07N101W, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 07N to 16N between 96W and 105W.

Convective precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec from 13N to 16N between 92W and 96W.

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 09N111W. Convective
precipitation: numerous strong from 08N to 10N between 111W and
112W. Scattered moderate isolated strong elsewhere from 08N to
12N between 106W and 114W. 

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 08N116W. Convective
precipitation: numerous strong from 06N to 10N between 113W and
118W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough is along 11N86W 12N100W, to a 1008 mb low
pressure center that is near 09N111W, to a 1009 mb low pressure
center that is near 08N116W, to 08N121W. The ITCZ continues from
08N121W to 07N130W and to 07N140W. Convective precipitation:
Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N to 08N between
92W and 96W, and from 04N to 07N between 105W and 111W.

...DISCUSSION... 

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 29N138W. A
trough extends from the cyclonic center beyond 21N140W. Cyclonic
wind flow covers the Eastern Pacific Ocean to the northwest of
the line that passes through 17N140W to 17N130W beyond 23N106W
in Mexico. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
30N111W in northwestern Mexico. Earlier altimeter data were
showing sea heights from 8 feet to 10 feet to the south of 21N
to the east of 127W. These sea heights are predominantly
southwest swell that is mixed with northwest swell. This swell
is expected to decay to less than 8 feet through Wednesday.

Successive scatterometer passes since yesterday have been
indicating a surge of southwest winds into the monsoon trough
from 04N to 10N between roughly 90W and 105W. Altimeter data
from this area have been showing concurrent wave heights of 8 to
10 ft, with some contribution of southwest swell. The winds are
to the east of a pair of elongated weak low pressure areas along
the monsoon trough farther west near 111W and 116W. The winds
are expected to diminish after Wednesday as the low pressure
areas move more to the west, allowing the sea heights and the
thunderstorm activity to diminish also.

A cold front is approaching the waters that are from 25N
northward along 140W. Wind speeds ranging from 20 knots to 25
knots are to the east of the front from 27N to 29N between 139W
and 140W. The forecast is for the front to weaken and to stall
before ever crossing into the discussion area. Wave heights of 6
feet to 7 feet will impact the waters that are from 25N
northward and from 137W westward. These sea heights are related
to shorter period swell that is being generated along the front.
A broad surface ridge will continue across the waters that are
to the north of 15N and to the west of 120W.

$$
mt