000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC MON MAY 23 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from low pres near 09N77W to 08N95W
to 12N105W to low pres near 09N118W to low pres near 06.5N137W
to 05.5N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
are south of the monsoon trough from 03N to 08N between 93W and
105W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are
within 180 NM of the monsoon trough east of 88W...and west of
112W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

A surface trough extends from low pressure near Las Vegas, NV to
the northern Gulf of California near 30N114.5W. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail over the northern Gulf today with
light to gentle winds over the southern Gulf. Low pressure will
develop over over the northern Gulf tonight into Tuesday...which
will increase winds to fresh near the southern portion of the
low. 

A ridge axis extends SE over the remainder of the area to
23N115W to 18N107W with gentle winds east of 108W and moderate
anticyclonic winds around the ridge axis to the west of 108W.
This pattern is forecast to persist for the next few days with a
slight increase in winds W of Baja California by Friday, as the
ridge to the west builds eastward.  


S OF 15N E OF 110W...

Light to moderate winds are expected to continue across the
forecast area south of the monsoon trough through the week, with
variable light winds north of the trough. Combined seas of 3 to
5 feet will prevail through Wednesday morning, and then will
build to 4 to 7 feet for the remainder of the week as new cross-
equatorial southwesterly swell arrives. The monsoon trough is
forecast to remain in tact with active convection through mid
week. 

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

A 1029 MB high is centered north of our forecast area near
34N148W...with a ridge axis that extends SE through 23N115W.
This ridge dominates the area north of the monsoon trough, with
moderate to fresh trade winds south of the NW to SE oriented
ridge axis. Weak areas of low pressure will continue to form
along the monsoon trough through the week, and shift westward.
Winds may occasionally pulse to fresh to strong across the
northern portion of these lows as they move westward, especially
as convection flares up near the lows.

$$
ASL