000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230901
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC MON MAY 23 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from low pres near 09N74W to 09.5N85W
to 09N97W to 11.5N103W to low pres near 08N124W to 07.5N127W.
The ITCZ extends from 07.5N127W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection was noted south of the
monsoon trough from 03N to 08N between 94W and 100W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 180 nm N
and 90 nm S of the monsoon trough between 110W and 122W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

Weak low pressure of 1009 mb is centered over the far northern
Gulf of California near 30.5N114.5W. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail across the northern portion of the gulf with seas
subsiding to 1-2 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail over the
southern Gulf of California with seas in the 1-2 ft range,
except reaching 3 ft over the far southern waters. The weak low
pressure will dissipate later this morning. Expect the low
pressure area to form once again over the far northern waters
overnight from Monday to Tuesday with winds freshening over the
SE semicircle of the low.  

Outside of the Gulf of California, ridging extends from high
pressure centered NW of the area near 37N149W to 16N108W. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure across
Mexico is supporting mainly moderate northwest to north winds
and combined seas of 4 to 6 feet. These conditions are expected
to prevail along the full length of the Baja Peninsula, with
occasional pulsing to fresh onshore winds during afternoon sea
breeze development.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

Light to moderate winds are expected to continue across the
forecast area south of the monsoon trough through the week, with
variable light to moderate winds expected north of the trough.
Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet will prevail through Wednesday
morning, then will build to 4 to 7 feet for the remainder of the
week as new cross-equatorial southwesterly swell arrives.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

Ridging dominates the area north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ,
with moderate to fresh trade winds continuing generally south of
25N and west of 120W. Transient and weak areas of low pressure
will continue to form along the monsoon trough through the week,
and shift westward. Winds may occasionally pulse to fresh to
strong across the northern portion of the lows as they move
westward, especially as convection flares up, with seas
temporarily building 7-8 feet.

Looking ahead, winds offshore of southern California just north
of the area are expected to increase to fresh to strong by the
end of the week into next weekend. These winds will send fresh
northerly swell into the northern discussion waters between 120W
and 130W, with combined seas of 8 to 10 feet by Friday night.

$$
AL