000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230236
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC MON MAY 23 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1005 mb near 09N75W to
08.5N89W to 11.5N105W to low pres 1011 mb near 07.5N125W to
07.5N127W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N127W to beyond 05N140W.
Widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 04N-09N east of 102W to coast of Colombia, and from
06N-13.5N between 103W and 123W. Widely scattered moderate
convection noted from 06N-10N between 123W and 132W

...DISCUSSION...   

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

A surface trough lingers across the northern Gulf of California
this evening and extends northward into southwest Arizona. Light
to moderate winds prevail across northern portions of the gulf
and seas have diminished to 2-4 ft since the afternoon hours.
Weak low pressure is forecast to form in this general area
during the overnight hours throughout the week, when winds are
forecast to increase to near 20 knots southeast of the low.
Otherwise, expect mainly light and variable winds and seas of 2
feet or less across the remainder of the Gulf of California
through the week, with afternoon seabreezes reaching 15-20 kt
most days.

Outside of the Gulf of California, ridging extending across the
area from the northwest-west will prevail through the week.
Mainly moderate northwest to north winds and combined seas of 4
to 6 feet are expected along the full length of the Baja
Peninsula, occasionally pulsing to fresh onshore winds during
afternoon seabreeze development.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

Offshore winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region have shifted
to the southeast around 15 knots this evening, while seas across
this area were generally 4-5 feet. The offshore wind flow across
the area is forecast to remain moderate during the next few
days, and peak around 15 knots during the overnight into the
early morning hours for the remainder of the week.

Otherwise, mainly light to moderate westerly winds are forecast
south of the monsoon trough through the week, and variable light
to moderate winds north of the trough . Combined seas of 3 to 5
feet will prevail through Wednesday morning, then will build to
4 to 7 feet for the remainder of the week as new cross-
equatorial southwesterly swell arrives.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

Ridging dominates the area north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ,
with moderate to fresh trade winds continuing generally south of
25N and west of 120W. Transient and weak areas of low pressure
will continue to form along the monsoon trough and ITCZ through
the week, and shift westward. Winds may occasionally pulse to
fresh to strong across the northern portion of the lows as they
move westward, especially as convection flares up, with seas
temporarily building 7-8 feet.

Looking ahead, winds offshore of southern California just north
of the area are expected to increase to fresh to strong by the
end of the week into next weekend. These winds will send fresh
northerly swell into the northern discussion waters between 120W
and 130W, with combined seas of 8 to 10 feet by Friday night.

$$
Stripling