000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222118
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC SUN MAY 22 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pres 1008 mb near
10.5N75W to 08.5N88W to 11N104W to low pres 1012 mb near
08N124.5W to low pres 1013 mb near 07.5N131W to 07N133W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N133W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 04.5N-09N east of
101W to coast of Colombia, and from 07N-13N between 101W and
127W.

...DISCUSSION...   

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

Weak low pressure over the far northern Gulf of California has
dissipated, leaving a surface trough extending northward into
southwest Arizona in its place, and light to moderate winds.
Weak low pressure is forecast to form in the same general area
during the overnight hours throughout the week, although winds
are anticipated to be 20 knots or less. Otherwise, expect mainly
light and variable winds and seas of 2 feet or less across the
remainder of the Gulf of California through the week, with
afternoon seabreezes reaching 15-20 kt most days.

Outside of the Gulf of California, ridging extending across the
area from the northwest-west will prevail through the week.
Mainly moderate northwest to north winds and combined seas of 4
to 6 feet are expected, occasionally pulsing to fresh offshore
of the Baja California peninsula during afternoon seabreeze
development.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

Offshore winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region have
diminished to 15-20 knots this afternoon, and extended well
offshore to near 90W based on midday scatterometer data. Seas
across this area were generally 4-6 feet. The offshore wind flow
across the area is forecast to weaken modestly during the next
few days, and peak around 15 knots during the overnight into the
early morning hours for the remainder of the week.

Otherwise, mainly light to moderate westerly winds are forecast
on either side of the monsoon trough through the week. Combined
seas of 3 to 5 feet will prevail through Wednesday morning, then
will build to 4 to 7 feet for the remainder of the week as new
cross-equatorial southwesterly swell arrives.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

Ridging dominates the area north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ,
with moderate to fresh trade winds present generally south of
25N and west of 120W. Transient and weak areas of low pressure
will continue to form along the monsoon trough and ITCZ through
the week, and shift westward. Winds may occasionally pulse to
fresh to strong across the northern portion of the lows as they
move westward, especially as convection flares up, with seas
temporarily building 7-8 feet.

Looking ahead, winds offshore of southern California just north
of the area are expected to increase to fresh to strong by the
end of the week into next weekend. These winds will send fresh
northerly swell into the northern discussion waters between 120W
and 130W, with combined seas of 8 to 10 feet by Friday night.

$$
Stripling