000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221535
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 22 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N79W to 10N100W to low
pressure near 08N123W to low pressure near 07N130W to 06N136W.
The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 06N136W to
beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150
nautical miles south of the axis between 80W and 92W, and also
within 180 nautical miles either side of the axis between 100W
and 133W.

Also, scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N east of
79W, offshore of western Colombia.

...DISCUSSION...   

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

Weak low pressure over the far northern Gulf of California is
dissipating, while a surface trough extending northward into
southwest Arizona lingers in its place. Earlier fresh to strong
southwesterly winds on the southeast side of the low and trough
have diminished early this morning. Weak low pressure is
forecast to form in the same general area during the overnight
hours through the week, although winds are anticipated to be 20
knots or less. Otherwise, expect mainly light and variable winds
and seas of 2 feet or less across the remainder of the Gulf of
California through the week.

Outside of the Gulf of California, ridging extending across the
area from the northwest-west will continue to prevail through
the week. Mainly moderate northwest-north winds and combined
seas of 4 to 6 feet are expected, occasionally pulsing to fresh
offshore of the Baja California peninsula.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

Offshore winds in the Gulf of Papagayo pulsed to 20 knots this
morning with nocturnal drainage flow, with fresh seas up to 6
feet, however, these conditions are forecast to be slightly less
at 15 knots during the overnight into the early morning hours
for the remainder of the week.

Otherwise, mainly light to moderate westerly winds are forecast
on either side of the monsoon trough through the week. Combined
seas of 3 to 5 feet will prevail through Wednesday morning, then
will build to 4 to 7 feet for the remainder of the week as a new
cross-equatorial set of southwesterly swell arrives.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

Ridging dominates the area north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ,
with moderate to fresh trade winds present. Transient and weak
areas of low pressure will continue to form along the monsoon
trough and ITCZ through the week. Winds may occasionally pulse
to fresh to strong on the northern portion of the lows as they
move westward, especially as convection flares up, with seas
temporarily building to 8 feet.

Looking ahead, winds offshore of southern California just north
of the area are expected to increase to fresh to strong by the
end of the week into next weekend. These winds will send fresh
northerly swells into the northern discussion waters between
120W and 130W, with combined seas of 8 to 10 feet by Friday
night.

$$
JLewitsky