000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220933 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN MAY 22 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 08N87W TO 10.5N101W to 08N115W to low pres near 08N124W to 07N134W. The ITCZ extends from 07N134W to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm N of the monsoon trough between 100W-110W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm of the monsoon trough between 100W and 121W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm N and 60 nm S of the monsoon trough between 128W and 132W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W... Low pressure prevails over the far northern Gulf of California with a surface trough extending SW to Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the far northern Gulf of California waters associated to this low. The low will weaken and winds will diminish below 20 kt this morning. Otherwise, mainly light and variable winds and seas 2 ft or less are expected across the remainder of the Gulf into early next week, except where afternoon seabreezes increase local winds and seas. Elsewhere, high pressure of 1031 mb centered NW of the area near 36N149W extends a ridge SE to near 16N108W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure across Mexico and the southwestern U.S. is maintaining moderate north to northwest winds along the Pacific waters of Baja California extending southeast to to Las Islas Tres Marias, where seas continue at 4- 6 ft in mainly northerly swell. Conditions across these waters are not expected to change much through Monday, except where afternoon seabreezes increase winds to around 20 kt and seas build briefly 5-7 ft each of the next few days. S OF 15N E OF 110W... Winds have pulsed once again over the Gulf of Papagayo region. The pulsing of winds is weaker than last night and reaching near 20 kt. Winds will diminish to moderate this morning and maintain at 15 kt or less through early next week. Otherwise, mainly light to gentle winds will prevail over the area, with 4-5 ft seas building to 4-7 ft by the end of the upcoming work week, as a new pulse of cross-equatorial southwest swell reaches the regional waters. ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W... The ridge described above dominates the area west of 120W. A Kelvin wave propagating through the area has induced westerly winds as far west as 134W as described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section above. Active convection in associated with enhanced surface convergence driven from the Kelvin wave covers much of the area on either side of the monsoonal trough between 100W and 126W. This enhanced convection has helped for a low pressure center to develop within the monsoon trough near 08N124W. Winds may occasionally increase to around 25 kt across the north semicircle of the low with seas building temporarily to 8 ft during the next few days at the low shifts westward. However, no significant development of this low is expected. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh tradewinds will prevail through the remainder of the weekend and into the upcoming week. Combined seas of 4-7 ft will gradually subside north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ by the middle of the upcoming week. $$ AL