000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220236 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN MAY 22 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N75W to 10.5N98W to 07.5N115W to low pres 1009 mb near 08.5N126W to 08.5N134W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N134W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection noted within 180 nm of trough from 97W-128W. Widely scattered moderate to strong convection noted within 120 nm of axis W of 128W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W... A weakening stationary front across the northern Gulf of California has dissipated, leaving a thermal trough across far NW portions of the Gulf extending northward into southern California. Global models have consistently forecast fresh to strong southerly winds to 25 kt to occur east of the trough across north portions of the Gulf north of 29.5N. These winds will continue throughout much of the night and could increase locally to 25-30 kt, while seas build from 3-4 ft this evening to 5-8 ft late. Winds across this area will diminish to around 15 kt just prior to sunrise. Otherwise, mainly light and variable winds and seas 2 ft or less are expected across the remainder of the Gulf into early next week, except where afternoon seabreezes increase local winds and seas. Elsewhere, a strong high pressure ridge continues to dominate most of the area, and is centered on a 1031 mb high near 37N147W, with ridge extending southeastward to near 17N107W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure across Mexico and the southwestern U.S. is maintaining moderate north to northwest winds along the Pacific waters of Baja California extending southeast to to Las Islas Tres Marias, where seas continue at 4-6 ft in mainly northerly swell. Conditions across these waters are not expected to change much through Monday, except where afternoon seabreezes increase winds to around 20 kt and seas build briefly 5-7 ft each of the next few days. S OF 15N E OF 110W... Offshore winds have diminished across the Papagayo region and offshore waters late this afternoon through this evening, but are forecast to pulse to around 20 kt overnight with nocturnal drainage flow. Winds should then diminish to moderate thereafter through early next week. Otherwise, mainly light to moderate winds are expected on either side of the monsoon trough, with 4- 5 ft seas building to 4-7 ft by the end of the upcoming work week, as a new pulse of cross-equatorial southwest swell reaches the regional waters. ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W... The ridge described above dominates the area west of 120W this evening. A weak 1009 mb low embedded along the monsoon trough is located near 08.5N126W and shifting westward around 10 kt. Active convection continues within 180 nm of the low but has diminished in intensity modestly in the past 6 hours. Winds may occasionally increase to around 25 kt across the north semicircle of the low with seas building temporarily to 8 ft during the next few days at the low shifts westward. However, no significant development of this low is expected. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh tradewinds will prevail between the ITCZ and 22N through the remainder of the weekend and into the upcoming week. Combined seas of 4-7 ft will gradually subside north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ by the middle of the upcoming week, as the parent high center anchoring the ridge settle southward and slowly weakens. $$ STRIPLING